Summary
- August CPI met expectations, helping Bitcoin and Ether rebound while the outlook for the Fed rate path remained intact.
- Analysts said core CPI, a rate hold, and institutional allocations could determine whether the Bitcoin rally continues.
- Solana ETFs drew more than $500 million in net inflows, and passage of the CLARITY Act could lift price targets for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin and Ether rose after the U.S. consumer price index for August came in broadly in line with market expectations, leaving the outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate path largely unchanged.
The Block reported on September 11 that Bitcoin briefly neared $79,000 after the CPI release before trading around $77,800. Ether also climbed above $2,500.
U.S. Labor Department data showed August CPI rose 0.4% from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Higher energy prices pushed up headline inflation, but markets largely viewed the reading as unlikely to significantly alter expectations for the Fed's September policy path.
Matt Mena, senior digital assets strategist at 21Shares, said Bitcoin has risen an average of 2.13% over the 30 days following past core CPI readings that came in above expectations. A steady Fed would leave room for the current uptrend to continue, he said.
Still, a stronger-than-expected core inflation reading could turn rate expectations hawkish again. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said the recent Bitcoin rally has been driven more by institutional allocations than leverage, meaning an upside inflation surprise could weigh on the advance.
Louis Huang, an analyst at Bitget, pointed to firmer headline inflation driven by energy prices and relatively softer core inflation trends. For crypto markets, the latest CPI did not offer a strong directional signal on rates, he said. If Bitcoin stays above $76,270, that would suggest underlying demand remains solid.
Solana also extended its gains. Mena said Solana exchange-traded funds have attracted more than $500 million in net inflows this year, while network transactions topped 5 billion last month. He said SOL could also rise to $130 in the fourth quarter.
He added that if the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market structure bill, is passed, Bitcoin could target $100,000, Ether $3,000 and Solana more than $130.
