Bitcoin Reclaims $81,000; Bearish Outlook May Ease if It Holds Through Weekly Close
Summary
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the $81,000 level and is trading above the 50-week moving average, with its ability to hold there now in focus.
- If the weekly candle closes above the 50-week moving average, the bear-market outlook would weaken considerably.
- He added that in the past, a strategy of buying in tranches through the second half of years with U.S. midterm elections had been relatively effective.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $81,000 level and is trading above a key long-term trend line. With the market still in the weekend session, analysts say whether it can hold those levels through the weekly close will be a key turning point for the next move.
On Sept. 19, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that Bitcoin is now rebounding after a selloff that followed a golden cross. A higher high and a weekly close above the 50-week moving average would significantly weaken the bear-market case, he said.
Bitcoin was trading around $81,255. The 50-week moving average stands at about $78,785, leaving Bitcoin roughly 3% above that level. Because it is still Saturday, holding that range through the weekly close remains critical.
Cowen added that if Bitcoin retreats from current levels and falls back below the 50-week moving average, that would align with the existing bear-market view. More important than the short-term rebound itself, he wrote, is whether Bitcoin can establish itself above the key trend line on a weekly basis.
Cowen also rejected claims that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has already broken down. He argued that cycle bottoms do not form at exactly the same time each cycle, and that it is difficult to conclude the historical pattern has failed given that Bitcoin previously fell below its 200-week moving average in the second half of U.S. midterm-election years.
He added that, in the past, a strategy of buying in tranches through the second half of U.S. midterm-election years was relatively effective, rather than trying to pinpoint the exact bottom.
