Barclays Says 30-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 6% if AI Investment Boom Persists
Summary
- Barclays said a sustained artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom could push the 30-year US Treasury yield to 6% if US productivity growth continues.
- Barclays said expanding AI investment could keep US economic growth elevated, prompting markets to raise their outlook for the Federal Reserve's long-run interest-rate level.
- That could add upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has already risen above 5.61% to its highest level since 2002.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Barclays said the yield on the 30-year US Treasury could climb to 6% if an artificial intelligence investment boom continues to drive productivity growth in the United States.
Walter Bloomberg reported on September 29 that Barclays sees stronger AI investment sustaining robust US economic growth if it keeps lifting productivity.
In that scenario, markets could raise their expectations for the Federal Reserve's long-run interest-rate level, adding upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has already risen above 5.61%, its highest level since 2002.
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