Summary
- Fidelity Digital Assets said it is difficult to determine whether the Bitcoin bear market has ended, and that the rebound since August could also be a temporary rally.
- Kuiper said the market should be watched through November, citing Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the November 2022 bottom, including the possibility of a new low.
- He viewed the rise in volatility and the potential exhaustion of selling pressure as positive signs, while noting that the Bitcoin price is down more than 4% from a week ago.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Fidelity Digital Assets, the crypto arm of global asset manager Fidelity, said it is too early to conclude that Bitcoin’s recent rebound marks the end of its bear market.
Odaily reported on October 9 that Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, recently said “it cannot be said with certainty that the crypto bear market is over.” The rebound since August could mark the start of a new uptrend, but it could also prove to be a temporary rally within a broader bear market, he said.
Kuiper said November will be an important month when viewed through Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. He cited the previous bear-market bottom, which formed in November 2022.
Still, he stressed that the four-year cycle has never repeated with precision. Bitcoin could fall again and hit a new low in November or later, he said.
Kuiper also cited volatility and shifts in market fundamentals as encouraging signals. The sharp increase in volatility after a low-volatility period from June to mid-August resembles the late stages of several past bear markets, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion.
Bitcoin briefly tumbled into the $80,000 range on October 9 before recovering some of its losses. It was recently trading around $82,500, down more than 4% from a week earlier.
