Glassnode Says Bitcoin Rebound Masks Weaker Support Below $80,000
Summary
- Glassnode said Bitcoin rebounded on large buy orders, but support below $80,000 is weakening.
- Glassnode said $80,000 is a key defensive line, and because a futures-position liquidation zone is clustered below it, losses could deepen if that level breaks.
- Glassnode said the $78,000 realized market mean and spot ETF fund flows will be key indicators for judging future demand and whether the rebound can continue.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Price rebounds on large buy orders
Buying interest weakens below $80,000
Liquidation pressure could build if support breaks
Bitcoin has rebounded on the back of large buy orders, but buying interest that could prevent further declines below $80,000 is weakening, according to Glassnode.
The on-chain analytics firm wrote on X on Oct. 15 that large buy orders stacked at $80,000 were filled over the past week. New large bids then pushed prices higher, but support below $80,000 is weakening again.
The comment suggests traders should distinguish between the buying that drove the rebound and resting bids intended to guard against another leg lower. Even if orders emerge that lift prices in the near term, the market may struggle to absorb renewed selling pressure if there is not enough buy-side depth at lower levels.
Glassnode had already identified $80,000 as a key line of defense in its weekly report published on Oct. 14. On Binance's spot market, the price band with the largest buy orders fell to $80,000 from $81,000. At the time, the firm estimated the average purchase price for U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds at about $81,500.
The problem is that just below $80,000 sits a cluster of expected liquidation levels for futures positions betting on further gains. If Bitcoin falls through that level, forced selling from undercollateralized positions could add to the decline and deepen losses. On further downside, Glassnode said a key level to watch is about $78,000, the realized market mean, which it describes as an estimate of the average cost basis for actively traded market participants.
For the rebound to continue, actual spot demand needs to accompany standing buy orders. Glassnode said spot Bitcoin ETFs have swung back to net outflows, and that a steady return of inflows into those funds would be the key signal confirming a recovery in demand.
