BIS Says 0.01 Percentage-Point Rise in Bank Deposit Rates Could Slow Stablecoin Growth to 12% From 15%
Summary
- BIS researchers said they found that when U.S. banks' deposit rates rise by 0.01 percentage point, growth in stablecoin market capitalization tends to slow.
- The study found that when deposit rates rise by 0.01 percentage point, the 10-week average growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization falls to about 12% from about 15%, and to about 6% in the researchers' preferred estimate.
- The researchers said higher deposit rates at banks could affect the pace of stablecoin adoption, and that the effect was more pronounced for USDC than for Tether's USDT.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
A Bank for International Settlements study found that higher bank deposit rates could slow the pace of growth in the stablecoin market.
CoinDesk reported on October 17 that BIS researchers Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro analyzed weekly data from January 2019 through June 2025 and found that when the average deposit rate at U.S. banks rises by 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, growth in stablecoin market capitalization tends to slow.
The study found that a 0.01 percentage-point increase in deposit rates reduced the 10-week average growth rate of stablecoin market capitalization to about 12% from about 15%.
In the researchers' preferred estimate, which also accounts for the effect of banks raising rates in response to the expansion of the stablecoin market, the growth rate falls to about 6%. That approach carries some uncertainty, they said. In both cases, the stablecoin market did not contract; its growth simply slowed.
The effect was more pronounced for Circle's USDC than for Tether's USDT. The researchers said that may be because USDC is more closely tied to U.S. users.
The researchers said banks may be able to influence the pace of stablecoin adoption to some extent if they raise deposit rates to prevent customers from moving funds elsewhere. The study does not prove that bank deposits or lending actually declined, and the sample period included only one episode of high interest rates.
"Banks can retain some influence over the pace of stablecoin adoption through adjustments to deposit rates," the researchers said.
