Bitcoin Nears $80,400 Support; Break Below Could Mark Shift to Downtrend
Summary
- On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said investors should watch whether Bitcoin can hold support at $80,400, the lower end of its three-week trading range.
- He said Bitcoin's structural indicator had fallen from 0.37 to -0.32, leaving it in neutral territory and still above the bearish threshold of -0.5.
- He said a simultaneous break below $80,400 and -0.5 on the structural indicator could signal a shift into a downtrend, while a recovery in the futures supply-demand indicator to 50 could mark an early sign of returning buying interest.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin is nearing the lower end of its three-week trading range, and whether it holds support at $80,400 could determine its next direction, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.
In a newsletter on October 20, Adler wrote that Bitcoin had fallen about 6% from $86,700 on October 2 to $81,600 that day.
Adler put the bottom of the recent three-week range at $80,400. As long as Bitcoin holds that level, the move can still be viewed as a correction following last month's rally.
A structural indicator tracking Bitcoin's price action has also fallen to -0.32 from 0.37 a week earlier. That means it has exited bullish territory, but remains above the bearish threshold of -0.5 and is still in neutral territory.
Selling pressure continues to dominate the futures market. Adler's futures supply-demand indicator has remained below 50 since October 17, a sign of seller dominance. It briefly approached 50 on October 19 before falling back to 46.
If Bitcoin drops below $80,400 and the structural indicator falls under -0.5, the current correction could begin to turn into a downtrend, Adler wrote. By contrast, if the futures supply-demand indicator regains 50, that could be seen as an early sign that buying interest is returning.
