Summary
- Bitcoin has been moving in a narrow range without a clear direction, with the US midterm elections, the interest-rate decision, and Big Tech earnings drawing attention as potential catalysts for a breakout.
- Experts said the Federal Reserve's rate decision, Big Tech earnings, and spot ETF fund flows are the main macroeconomic variables that will determine Bitcoin's direction.
- In the derivatives market, liquidation risk in large long and short positions is concentrated near the $80,000 support level and the $85,000 resistance level, raising the chances of a short squeeze and forced selling.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Midterm elections and Big Tech earnings are key variables
$80,000 support and $85,000 resistance in focus
Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range without establishing a clear direction. Investors are watching whether next month's US midterm elections, the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate decision at the end of this month and earnings reports from major technology companies will trigger a breakout.
Forbes reported on October 23 that Tim Enneking, managing partner at Psalion, views the US midterm elections on November 3 as the biggest variable. With tariffs, the US-Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war weighing on risk assets, uncertainty could deepen depending on how the US responds after the vote.
He said a heavy Republican defeat could prompt President Donald Trump to respond to tariffs and the wars in unpredictable ways. Markets need to watch not only the election result but also any policy shifts that follow.
Before that, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on October 27-28 will be the immediate test. Hugo Renodin, chief executive officer of Ulys, said the Fed's rate decision on October 28 and Big Tech earnings are the main macroeconomic variables likely to shape Bitcoin's direction. He added that mixed spot ETF fund flows also warrant close attention.
In derivatives markets, bulls and bears are still locked in a tug of war. Ray Salmond, founder of Stay Solvent Research, said about $8 billion in short positions above the spot price and about $7.6 billion in long positions below it appear exposed to liquidation risk.
Salmond said some short positions were liquidated after Bitcoin rose to $84,890 on October 21. But profit-taking emerged around $85,000, slowing the rally. That interrupted the so-called short squeeze, in which the liquidation of bearish bets fuels buying and pushes prices higher.
On the downside, $80,000 has emerged as the key support level. Salmond said roughly $3.57 billion in long positions are exposed to liquidation at that price, with another $3.6 billion concentrated near $79,000. If support gives way, forced selling could intensify downward pressure.
