Mizuho Cuts Circle Price Target to $43, Says AI Agents Threaten 10%-20% of Reserve Income
Summary
- Mizuho Securities cut its price target on Circle to $43 from $45 while maintaining an underperform rating.
- The firm said the spread of AI agents could shift USDC holdings into fiat products and higher-yielding stablecoins, reducing reserve income by 10%-20%.
- It also lowered its 2027 forecast for average USDC circulation to $101 billion from $108 billion, and cut its outlook for reserve income and adjusted EBITDA by about 5% each.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Mizuho Securities lowered its price target on USDC issuer Circle, warning that the spread of artificial intelligence agents could pose a significant threat to the company’s medium-term reserve income.
Crypto news outlet The Block reported on October 27 that Mizuho cut its price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to $43 from $45 and maintained its underperform rating. Circle shares fell 7% to close at $79.84 on the day, implying about 46% downside to Mizuho’s target.
Mizuho analysts wrote in a report that “AI personal assistant engines” would be a clear risk factor for Circle’s medium-term reserve income. As AI agent adoption expands, USDC holders may move into fiat-denominated products or other platforms offering higher yields. Mizuho estimated the medium-term hit to reserve income at 10% to 20%.
In Mizuho’s simulations, AI agents including Muse tended to recommend FDIC-insured fiat products such as SoFi savings accounts instead of USDC. Even when users insisted on retaining crypto exposure, the agents appeared to favor other platforms over holding USDC directly within the Circle ecosystem.
Under a rapid AI adoption scenario, Mizuho projected that about $7 billion would move into fiat products, while another $2 billion would shift into higher-yielding stablecoins. In that case, USDC’s market capitalization could shrink by as much as $9 billion and Circle’s reserve income could fall 18%.
Mizuho accordingly lowered its forecast for average USDC circulation in 2027 to $101 billion from $108 billion. It also cut its reserve income forecast by 5% to $4.1 billion from $4.3 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA estimate was reduced by about 5% to $603 million from $635 million.
Separately, Circle said earlier in October that its revenue for the first half of 2026 reached about $1.4 billion. During the same period, USDC’s on-chain transaction settlement volume topped $36 trillion. As of June 2026, USDC accounted for 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume, up sharply from 60% a year earlier.
