Summary
- Bitcoin faces the possibility of a second straight October decline as US buying weakens and spot demand falls, according to CryptoQuant.
- CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's October return was -4.2%, far below the 18.1% average since 2020, and that a narrowing premium for short-term holders has eroded the market's buffer against further declines.
- CryptoQuant identified $73,000 to $77,600 as a key support zone and said the FOMC rate decision and US midterm elections will be the main drivers of price action ahead.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin is at risk of posting a second straight October decline as buying by US investors weakens and spot demand falls.
A report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant on October 27 showed Bitcoin fell to $80,051 on October 25 from $83,567 at the end of September. That leaves the cryptocurrency down 4.2% for the month, far below the average October gain of 18.1% since 2020.
Bitcoin rose every October from 2020 through 2024, but that streak ended last year with a 3.8% decline. If the current trend continues, this year would mark a second consecutive October loss and the weakest October since 2020.
Demand indicators also pointed to weakness. Spot Bitcoin demand has been negative every day since October 14, and cumulative demand over the past 30 days had fallen by about 76,000 BTC as of October 25. The Coinbase premium, a gauge of US investor buying strength, remained below zero throughout the month. It fell to -0.146 on October 24, the lowest since late June.
Short-term holders also have less cushion for profits. The premium of market price over realized price for investors who have held Bitcoin for one to three months narrowed to 8.1% on October 26 from 33.4% on September 22. CryptoQuant wrote that much of the market's buffer to absorb further price declines has been depleted.
Still, the broader uptrend has not fully broken. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell to 60 from 90, though six of its 10 indicators still show bullish signals. A reading below 50 is interpreted as a sign of a shift in market regime.
CryptoQuant identified $73,000 to $77,600 as the next major support range. The 365-day moving average stands at $77,585, the realized price for short-term holders is $74,041, and the 200-day moving average is $73,028. The firm said the Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision on October 28 and the US midterm elections on November 3 will be the main variables shaping Bitcoin's next move.
