Polymarket’s Top Earner Made $12 Million in Six Months Through 180,000 Repeat Trades
Summary
- On prediction-market platform Polymarket, the anonymous account “swisstony” posted $12 million in profit over six months, making it the top-earning account.
- The account repeatedly executed about 184,000 trades, using a structure in which cumulative betting volume reached $657 million while capital committed to the market at any one time was $17 million.
- Professional investors are using algorithms, price analysis, purchases of undervalued contracts, the capture of price gaps across markets, market-making, and a structure that allows large trades, the report said.
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An anonymous account that made $12 million from sports betting over six months on prediction-market platform Polymarket ranked as the platform’s top earner. The account’s average return on each bet was less than 2%, but it built up profits through roughly 180,000 repeat trades. The findings suggest professional traders using algorithms and price analysis are gaining influence in prediction markets.
The Financial Times reported on October 29 that an analysis of 170 million bets placed by 1.2 million Polymarket accounts since April found the anonymous account “swisstony” generated the largest profit.
The account took roughly 184,000 trading positions during the period analyzed. Since June, it had placed at least one bet every hour for 26 straight days. That pace has fueled speculation that it used an algorithm.
The core strategy was to trade at favorable prices, withdraw capital and deploy it again. At its peak, the account had about $17 million committed to the market at one time, but its cumulative betting volume reached $657 million.
Chris Park, founder of prediction-market analytics firm MSR Decode, said the main strategy was to buy contracts priced below the odds set by professional sports betting firms. Beyond predicting game outcomes, the trader repeatedly captured price gaps across markets.
Another high-volume account, RN1, placed buy orders on both sides of an outcome and sought to profit from the spread. In effect, it acted as a market maker supplying liquidity to counterparties. Traditional sports betting firms including DraftKings and Flutter are also using their odds-setting capabilities in prediction-market market-making activity.
The ability to place large trades has also drawn professional investors. Traditional sports betting operators often cap deposits or individual wagers, but trades of more than $1 million on a single match are taking place on Polymarket.
Still, market surveillance tied to anonymous trading remains an issue. Polymarket said it blocks sanctioned wallets and monitors transactions with firms including blockchain analytics company Chainalysis.
Swisstony has not bought new contracts over the past two months. Park said profitable traders may split funds across several smaller accounts to avoid exposing their strategies, or move to platforms where trading records are not publicly disclosed.
