Bitwise Raises Bitcoin 2036 Price Target to $1.6 Million, Sees 34.3% Annual Return
Summary
- Bitwise said it raised Bitcoin's 2036 price target to $1.6 million from $1.3 million.
- Bitwise said it expects Bitcoin to deliver a 34.3% compounded annual return over the next 10 years, outpacing projected returns for U.S. stocks and private equity.
- Bitwise said broader asset allocation by institutional investors could generate demand of $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion, while its volatility forecast fell to 27.8%.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitwise, the crypto asset manager, has raised its 2036 price target for Bitcoin to $1.6 million from $1.3 million. Citing institutional inflows and limited new supply, the firm projects a 34.3% compounded annual return over the next decade.
Crypto-focused media outlet The Block reported on October 28 that Bitwise made the forecast in a report published that day titled "2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions." The report compared that outlook with projected annual returns of 6.7% for U.S. equities and 10.8% for private equity.
Bitwise said the higher target reflects a larger addressable market for Bitcoin. It raised its 2036 estimate for the global store-of-value market to $110 trillion from $91 trillion, and for the institutional investment market to $303 trillion from $216 trillion. Its assumptions for Bitcoin's market share in each market were unchanged.
The firm said greater institutional asset allocation would generate demand far exceeding new supply. Citing estimates from Boston Consulting Group, Bitwise said that if institutional investors allocate 1% to 5% of the roughly $147 trillion they manage to Bitcoin over the next decade, that could create $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand. By contrast, new supply from mining totals about $14 billion a year.
Its base-case target of $1.6 million assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional assets by 2036. Bitwise set a bear-case target of $130,686 and a bull-case target of $3.67 million.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, said the firm is more bullish on Bitcoin than it was last year. He cited the smaller drawdown during the recent correction compared with past cycles, regulatory progress, and rising demand for store-of-value assets such as gold as reasons for long-term growth.
Bitwise also expects Bitcoin's price volatility to decline over time. It lowered its average volatility forecast for the next decade to 27.8% from 32.9% last year.
Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise's head of research, said Bitcoin will remain a volatile asset prone to sharp declines. Still, price swings should narrow as institutional participation deepens.
