Summary
- Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7.32% in October, posting its worst October return since 2014.
- The Binance hack, institutional investor outflows, and net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined to increase downward pressure on the market.
- In early November, Bitcoin’s $76,000-$76,500 support zone and $78,000-$81,840 resistance range will be the key variables for its next price move.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin fell more than 7% in October, posting its weakest return for the month in 12 years.
Bitcoin dropped 7.32% in October, according to Bitcoin.com on November 1. That was its worst October performance since a 12.6% decline in 2014 and the fourth-steepest October drop on record.
The cryptocurrency has long drawn attention for the so-called “Uptober” pattern, a reference to Bitcoin’s tendency to rise in October. From 2010 through 2025, Bitcoin gained in 11 of 16 Octobers, with an average return of 26.1%. But after falling 3.9% in October last year, it extended the weakness for a second straight year. That marked Bitcoin’s first back-to-back October declines since 2011 and 2012.
A $6.3 billion Binance hack on October 29 weighed on the market in particular. Bitcoin traded between $76,337 and $81,840 over the past week, while more than $1.5 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in the 24 hours immediately after the hack.
Outflows from institutional investors added to the pressure. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of about $643 million on October 30. Binance pledged to fully compensate affected customers, but market anxiety persisted after the breach.
Market participants are watching the $76,000 to $76,500 range as Bitcoin’s key support zone in early November. If that level breaks, the cryptocurrency could fall further toward $75,000 and then $73,000. By contrast, a recovery to the $78,000 to $80,000 range could bolster the case for a short-term rebound, with $81,840 cited as the next resistance level.
November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s stronger months. The average return for the month stands at about 34.9%, with a median gain of 10.3%. Even so, the average is heavily skewed by Bitcoin’s 454% surge in November 2013, making it difficult to predict a rebound based on seasonality alone.
Bitcoin is also down about 11.2% this year. Its next move will depend on how the Binance hack is resolved, flows in and out of spot ETFs, and whether support in the $76,000 range holds.
