Kalshi Prices 88% Odds That US Defense Secretary Hegseth Will Leave Before April 1, 2027
Summary
- Prediction market platform Kalshi showed an 88% chance that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will step down before April 1, 2027.
- The figure was up 48 percentage points from about 40% a month earlier.
- The probability is based on trading by Kalshi participants and does not mean his departure has been confirmed.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
On prediction market platform Kalshi, traders are assigning an 88% chance that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will leave his post before April 1, 2027. That is up sharply from about 40% a month ago.
Kalshi data on November 4 showed the odds of Hegseth stepping down before April 1, 2027 at 88%.
That is 48 percentage points higher than about 40% a month earlier.
The figure reflects probabilities implied by trading on Kalshi and does not mean Hegseth's departure has been confirmed.
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