US Stocks Wobble on AI-Bubble Fears; China Markets Brace for Inflation, Export Data

Eyes on CoreWeave Earnings and China Export Data

US Inflation Shock or an AI Rebound

Global Markets Hold Their Breath for China’s Trade Report

US stocks in New York and Chinese shares in Shanghai are poised for a volatile week from Nov. 9 to Nov. 13 as investors await key economic data from both countries. In New York, the main swing factors are the US consumer price index and earnings from AI infrastructure company CoreWeave. In Shanghai, investors will parse China’s inflation and trade data for clues on the recovery in domestic demand and the trajectory of external demand.

In New York, the focus is on whether the S&P 500 can rebound after four straight weekly declines and whether the Nasdaq, already in a technical correction, can recover. If US inflation comes in hotter than expected, persistent concern over elevated valuations in AI-related shares could trigger another wave of selling in technology stocks.

The market is focused on the October CPI report due Nov. 10. Economists expect both headline CPI and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to have risen 0.3% from the previous month. Last week’s employment data underscored the resilience of the US labor market, so a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could revive expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten further.

The October producer price index is due on Nov. 13. Consensus forecasts call for headline PPI to rise 0.4% from a month earlier and core PPI to increase 0.3%. Some PPI components feed into the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, making the report an important signal for the policy outlook.

CoreWeave’s third-quarter results, due after the close on Nov. 10, will also be scrutinized for what they say about the durability of the AI infrastructure investment boom. Investors are paying closer attention to cash burn and borrowing tied to heavy capital expenditure than to revenue growth.

The Democratic Party’s victory in the US midterm elections has also raised the prospect of tighter data-center regulation, adding uncertainty around new facility construction and power procurement. What CoreWeave management says about financing plans and its investment timetable during the earnings announcement could shape sentiment toward AI-related stocks.

In Shanghai, the key events are China’s October CPI and PPI reports due Nov. 9 and trade and customs data expected on Nov. 10. Together, they should offer a read on the pace of domestic-demand recovery, producer-price pressures and export momentum.

Markets expect China’s October CPI to have slowed to 0.8%, while PPI is forecast to have accelerated to 5.2% to 5.3%. If consumer inflation cools while producer-price gains remain firm, corporate cost pressures and the pace of consumer recovery could become central issues for the stock market.

Trade data due on Nov. 10 will also be closely watched. In September, China’s dollar-denominated exports rose 36.3% from a year earlier, while imports increased 31%. Investors are watching whether export growth held up in October. Weaker-than-expected exports could weigh on sentiment toward export-oriented shares. Continued import growth, by contrast, would offer a gauge of Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate goods.

Liquidity management by the People’s Bank of China is another variable. The central bank will raise the reserve requirement ratio on financial institutions’ foreign-currency deposits to 6% from 4% starting Nov. 15. Investors will be watching the impact on the yuan and on foreign-exchange market liquidity.

Kim Eun-jung, Beijing correspondent, Korea Economic Daily kej@hankyung.com