Kalshi US Midterm Election Trading Tops $2.5 Billion, Nearly Double 2024 Level
Summary
- Prediction-market platform Kalshi said total trading volume in US midterm election-related prediction contracts reached about $2.5 billion, nearly doubling from the 2024 midterm elections.
- Kalshi said its prediction markets reflected results hours ahead of broadcasters in most races and had shown higher odds of a Democratic victory.
- Kalshi said it plans to expand prediction markets to overseas elections following the midterms and prepare a dedicated page for the 2028 US presidential election.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Trading tied to the US midterm elections on prediction-market platform Kalshi has surpassed $2.5 billion.
Kalshi said on November 8 that total trading volume in midterm election-related prediction contracts on the platform reached about $2.5 billion. That was nearly double the $1.3 billion recorded during the 2024 midterm elections two years earlier.
The company said prediction markets reflected results hours ahead of broadcasters in most races. Ahead of the midterms, Kalshi's markets had shown higher odds of a Democratic victory. Still, the scale of the landslide, which exceeded prior expectations, was not fully priced into the market.
Kalshi plans to use the midterms as a springboard to expand its election-related prediction contracts. It will first broaden its offering to cover overseas elections and also prepare a dedicated page for the 2028 US presidential election. That page will center on markets tied to expected candidates, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, and the eventual winner.
