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Crypto asset manager Bitwise said it views the fourth quarter of 2025 as the trough of the crypto bear market and is leaning toward the possibility of a market rebound sometime in 2026. While price action was weak, the firm said network activity and real-use metrics showed a clear recovery. According to Cointelegraph on the 22nd (local time), Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer (CIO), said in a recently released report that “Q4 2025 was a period when strong fundamentals coincided with weak price action,” adding that “this is a classic signal typically seen late in a bear market.” Hougan cited early 2023 as a comparable case. The crypto market was in a deep slump in the wake of the FTX collapse, but Bitcoin later entered a prolonged rebound phase from around $16,000. “The data were mixed then as well, but the market went on to post a strong uptrend over the following two years,” he said. Bitwise said structural indicators improved in tandem in Q4 2025, including: △record-high transaction volumes on Ethereum and Layer 2 networks △higher revenues at crypto companies △broader use of decentralized finance (DeFi) △a surge in stablecoin transaction volumes and market capitalization. In particular, the size of the stablecoin market was estimated to have exceeded $300 billion in the fourth quarter. Prices, however, remained under pressure amid an ongoing correction. Bitwise attributed the divergence to dampened investor sentiment. Hougan said that the fact Uniswap volumes have consistently exceeded Coinbase’s shows “speculative fervor has cooled, but real usage is expanding.” Views on the market outlook for 2026, however, differ across institutions. Fundstrat expects greater volatility in the first half on tariff policy and geopolitical risks, while VanEck said an easing in fiscal-policy uncertainty and a stabilization in the U.S. economy could create a more favorable backdrop for risk assets. Bitwise pointed to potential catalysts for a rebound, including progress in discussions over a market-structure bill for the crypto sector (the CLARITY Act), wider use of stablecoins, personnel changes at the U.S. Federal Reserve, and improved access to crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at major brokerages. Hougan added, “Sentiment remains cautious, but fundamentals are already preparing for the next cycle.”

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US President Donald Trump has ramped up direct pressure on Denmark and major European countries, citing security threats surrounding Greenland, and has formally framed tariffs as a negotiating tool. On the 19th (local time), Trump wrote on his Truth Social account, "For centuries, the United States has effectively subsidized Denmark and European Union (EU) countries without tariffs," adding, "Now it’s time for Denmark to pay it back." He claimed that "China and Russia are eyeing Greenland, and Denmark has no practical means to stop them." Trump described Greenland as "sacred land" for US and global security, stressing that only the United States can protect it. He argued in particular that incorporating Greenland is essential for the efficient operation of the missile defense system known as the "Golden Dome" and modern weapons systems. "In terms of angles, range, and strategic requirements, the defense system cannot function fully unless Greenland is included," he said. Accordingly, Trump signaled tough measures targeting eight countries—Denmark, as well as Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. He said, "Starting February 1, 2026, we will impose a 10% tariff on all goods these countries export to the United States, and raise it to 25% starting June 1," adding that "the tariffs will remain in place until an agreement is reached to purchase Greenland fully and comprehensively." Trump said the United States has sought to buy Greenland for more than 150 years, claiming that several past presidents had the same objective. Still, he left room for diplomacy, saying, "The United States is ready to enter talks immediately with Denmark and the countries concerned."

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A forecast has emerged that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not approve a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF). John Reed Stark, former chief of the SEC’s Office of Internet Enforcement (CIO), said on X (formerly Twitter) that “the SEC will not approve spot Bitcoin ETF applications at this time for a number of compelling reasons.” He added that if the Republican candidate wins next year’s U.S. presidential election, crypto-friendly policies could follow and the likelihood of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF would rise. Stark said, “If the next president is a Republican, it’s highly likely that current SEC Chair Gary Gensler will step down,” adding that “crypto-friendly Hester Peirce could become acting SEC chair, and the SEC’s turmoil related to the crypto industry would come to an end.”

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Edited 3:42 pm · 2026. 01. 12.Entered 1:38 pm · 2026. 01. 12. Amid broad gains across artificial intelligence (AI)-related sectors, Story (IP) is extending its rally as expectations build for inclusion in U.S. institutional portfolios, alongside a forthcoming mainnet upgrade. According to CoinMarketCap on the 12th (Korea time), Story (IP) was trading at $2.53, up 26.93% from the previous day. At the same time, on Upbit’s KRW market it rose 8.8% day-on-day to 3,647 won, ranking third in daily trading volume (95.8 billion won) behind XRP (Ripple·XRP) and Bitcoin (BTC). A key driver of this rise is first seen as a rebound in investor sentiment toward the broader AI sector. Story is a project that aims to build infrastructure for managing and distributing on-chain the intellectual property (IP) of content and data generated and used by AI, and as the AI-based content industry expands, its status as a theme-driven play is being highlighted. As AI-related tokens such as Render (Render) and Virtual (Virtual) have posted concurrent gains in the crypto market recently, analysts say demand has also concentrated in Story. Following the release of its Chapter 2 roadmap last year, Story has focused on real-world data IP used for robotics and multimodal AI (Multi-modal model, AI beyond text such as audio and video). To that end, in the third quarter it launched Poseidon via a subsidiary, targeting the build-out of a data IP infrastructure usable in real industrial settings such as robotics, autonomous driving, and industrial automation—drawing attention from major overseas media including Bloomberg. Another issue has been the growing spotlight on indirect exposure to the Story ecosystem from traditional finance. According to materials released on the 6th by Grayscale, the largest U.S. crypto asset manager with about 50 trillion won in assets under management, the IP token is said to account for about 5.3% of the portfolio of the Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund that it manages. The upcoming mainnet upgrade scheduled for the 14th is also seen as a contributing factor. Through this upgrade, the Fusaka upgrade proposals that had recently been discussed on the Ethereum (ETH) network will be applied to the Story network as well. Technical indicators also point to a strong upward trend. On a CoinMarketCap basis, Story (IP) has broken above both the 30-day moving average ($1.78) and the 7-day moving average ($2.09), while RSI (7) stood at 79.98, nearing overbought territory. MACD also flashed a bullish reversal signal, confirming a buyer-dominant flow. However, after the sharp short-term jump, whether it can hold above $2.57 on a closing basis is being cited as a key variable for trend continuation.

Input 5:34 p.m. · 2026. 01. 12. Hearing from Wall Street (4) Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Hawks vs. doves at the Fed over the rate path Policy could be swayed by political pressure Key investment risks to watch Fiscal expansion, inflation, excessive concentration in AI Korea’s semiconductor outlook is positive, but High sensitivity to AI also raises risk concerns Torsten Slok, chief economist at U.S. asset manager Apollo Global Management (pictured), said the won’s weakness against the dollar (a rise in the won-dollar exchange rate) is likely to persist for the time being. In a recent written interview with The Korea Economic Daily, Slok cited the U.S. economy’s relative strength versus Korea’s. Slok is a Wall Street-watched economist known for his “Daily Spark” report. ▷President Donald Trump is pressuring the U.S. central bank (Fed). “While the Fed may take a cautious stance, what matters is how markets interpret the Fed’s reaction. Inflation is still close to 3%, unemployment remains low, and financial conditions have already eased considerably. The Fed’s room to actually move (the policy rate) is limited.” ▷The Fed raised its outlook for U.S. growth this year and expects inflation to cool. “It’s possible, but it’s a very narrow path. About two-thirds of today’s inflation is driven by demand-side factors, not supply. The fiscal boost is still running, and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating. It’s not easy to envision inflation falling quickly to 2% (the Fed’s target) without a slowdown in growth.” ▷Differences within the Fed have widened. “It’s meaningful as a signal that uncertainty inside the Fed is rising. As divisions widen, the effectiveness of forward guidance (with Fed Chair Jerome Powell steadying markets through communication) weakens, and markets price in greater volatility at every Fed meeting.” ▷So volatility stemming from those divisions is a risk. “The real risk isn’t the disagreement itself, but policy deviating from the underlying inflation fundamentals (due to political pressure and the like).” ▷How serious is the cooling in the U.S. labor market? “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not a recessionary phase. Initial jobless claims remain historically low, and while the unemployment rate has edged up, it’s still consistent with full employment by historical standards. The key question is how quickly AI adoption translates into productivity gains or labor displacement, and that has not yet been clearly reflected in macro indicators.” ▷The spread between long- and short-term U.S. Treasury yields is widening. “Short-term yields (2-year) are falling while long-term yields (10-year) remain elevated, reflecting fiscal expansion, the term premium (higher yields for longer maturities), and inflation uncertainty. The current steepening is less a signal of a growth breakdown than a sign that confidence in (U.S.) policy is being put to the test.” ▷What do you make of the AI bubble argument? “AI investment has now become a core driver of the macroeconomy, and hyperscalers’ capex is historically very high relative to cash flow. A large portion of that spending is being funded in cash, which has reduced near-term risks to financial stability. But if (investors’) expectations exceed the actual scale of profit generation, the risk doesn’t disappear. The broader economy is more exposed to AI, which raises the cost of being wrong.” ▷What risks should investors watch this year? “The key is the interaction effects (among those factors). Fiscal policy remains expansionary, and inflation is sticky around 3% (not coming down easily), making it likely that rates will stay higher for longer. At the same time, markets are overly concentrated on the AI-related growth story. If that narrative shifts, it could trigger outsized shocks across equities, credit markets, and capital flows.” ▷Is the won’s weakness a temporary trend? “It largely reflects global divergences. The U.S. economy has been relatively stronger, inflation is higher than in Europe, and rates are likely to stay higher for longer. Those factors are supporting the dollar. If global growth converges and rate differentials narrow, FX pressures could ease, but in the near term the macro backdrop still favors dollar strength (versus the won).” ▷AI is seen as a tailwind for Korea’s semiconductors. “It appears we are moving away from a trade-war-driven slowdown and into a more supportive environment where fiscal stimulus and AI investment are ramping up in earnest. AI is reshaping the manufacturing cycle. Rather than a broad-based industrial recovery, capex is being concentrated in compute capacity, data centers, and power infrastructure. This is positive for Korea’s semiconductor industry over the long term, but it also increases sensitivity to the pace and durability of AI adoption.” New York = Correspondent Park Shin-young nyusos@hankyung.com

Updated 5:07 p.m. · 2026. 01. 14.Entered 5:06 p.m. · 2026. 01. 14. IP coin’s daily trading volume on the 14th nears W1 trillion Tailwinds from the ‘AI theme’ and a ‘network upgrade’ String of positives including token buybacks and U.S. institutional demand Rumors also swirl of a collaboration agreement with Tesla Story (IP), the native token of the blockchain-based intellectual property (IP) infrastructure project Story Protocol, is surging as tailwinds for AI-themed coins and expectations around a mainnet update fuel buying. As of the 14th (local time), IP was up 33.6% day on day to $4.02 on CoinMarketCap, and was trading at W5,820 on Upbit’s KRW market. It has gained roughly 100% over the past three days since the 12th. IP’s global trading volume on the day reached $662.19 million (about W977 billion). The move follows similar-sized rallies in AI-related tokens such as Render and Virtual earlier this year, suggesting speculative demand tied to the AI theme has rotated into Story, another AI-linked coin. Story Protocol is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to handle the full lifecycle of IP on-chain—from registration and licensing to revenue distribution. By enabling creative works and AI training data to be managed as smart-contract-based assets, it is being cited as a potential core infrastructure layer for the AI era. Recent market expectations have also been lifted by mainnet-related updates and ecosystem expansion plans. Story is scheduled to roll out an upgrade on the 14th that applies proposals from Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade to the Story network. With deposits and withdrawals of IP restricted at major exchanges from tonight, speculative demand seeking to capitalize on the event is also believed to have piled in. Analysts also point to the extension of the previously known IP token buyback program and positive catalysts tied to U.S. institutional demand as key drivers of the rally. The Story Foundation said late last year that it would extend its IP token buyback (open-market purchases) program through Feb. 1, 2026, and expand the purchase size from $82 million to $100 million (about W147 billion). Grayscale, the largest U.S. crypto asset manager with about W50 quadrillion in assets under management, launched an IP token trust product for institutional investors in August last year. Commentary has followed that, compared with other altcoins, easier access for U.S. institutional investors may also have supported the price. Grayscale said on the 12th that it designated Poseidon—Story’s subsidiary and an AI data-licensing project—and Aria Protocol (Ariaip), a Story-based copyright-related project, as candidates for “investment products.” The list is a disclosure in which Grayscale selects and publishes digital assets it is reviewing for potential launches of new institutional products or expansions of existing offerings. Separately, rumors have circulated in some Story communities on X and Telegram that Story’s “Poseidon” has signed a collaboration agreement with Tesla, the world’s largest electric-vehicle company. In response, a Story official said, “It’s difficult to comment on cooperation with specific companies,” adding, “Story and Poseidon have focused on IT infrastructure for the AI era. We expect meaningful results related to this to emerge in the first half of this year.”

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, said delays in U.S. crypto-asset regulation are hindering service rollout and innovation, urging swift passage of a crypto market structure bill. On the 15th (local time), Tenev wrote on X that “staking is one of the most requested features in the Robinhood app, but due to the current regulatory deadlock, we still can’t offer it in four states in the U.S.,” adding that “stock tokens are available to European Union (EU) customers, but not in our home market, the United States.” Calling the situation “the moment for the U.S. to take the lead in crypto policy,” he stressed the need for legislation that can achieve both consumer protection and innovation. He added that he supports the crypto market structure bill being pursued in Congress, saying, “There are still issues to resolve, but a clear path to progress is emerging, and we are ready to work actively to get it across the finish line.”

Lawmakers on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee have reportedly submitted a large package of amendments to a bill related to digital assets. Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto America, said on X on the 13th (local time) that “members of the Senate Banking Committee filed a total of 137 amendments to the bill text released the previous day.” The move reflects last-minute coordination ahead of the 5 p.m. (U.S. Eastern Time) deadline. According to multiple sources, some of the submitted amendments are expected to be formally taken up during the committee’s scheduled markup on Thursday. However, it has not yet been confirmed whether all amendments will be put to a vote.