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Analysis has emerged suggesting that Bitcoin entered a bearish phase as early as two months ago. On the 1st (local time), Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, appeared on the YouTube channel 'Milk Road' and said, "The Bitcoin price has fallen below its 1-year moving average (the 12-month average price)," adding that "this is a technical indicator confirming entry into a bear market." He also explained, "Our in-house 'bull market score indicator,' which aggregates network activity, investor profitability, liquidity and other factors, has already turned bearish since early November last year and has yet to recover." In fact, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,199 on Oct. last year, but later gave back its gains and ended the year below its opening price at the start of the year ($93,576). As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $88,700. Moreno put the bottom of this bear market in the $56,000 to $60,000 range. This estimate is based on the 'realized price (the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders).' "Looking at past cases, in a bear market prices tend to fall back toward the realized price level," he said, adding that "this would represent a drop of about 55% from the peak, which shows relatively solid downside resilience compared with past downturns when prices plunged 70–80%." That said, he assessed that the market’s structural health has improved compared with the past. Unlike the major systemic risks seen in 2022 such as the Terra-Luna collapse or FTX bankruptcy, institutional funds flowing through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are supporting the market. "In previous bear markets, demand contracted sharply, but now there is structural demand from institutions and ETFs that buy on a regular basis," Moreno added. "They are absorbing supply and reducing market volatility."

An analysis has been raised that Bitcoin already entered a bearish market about two months ago. On the 1st (local time), Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, appeared on the YouTube channel 'Milk Road' and said, "Bitcoin’s price has fallen below its one-year moving average (the 12-month average price)," adding that "this is a technical indicator that confirms entry into a bear market." He further explained that "our proprietary 'bull market score' indicator, which aggregates network activity, investor profitability and liquidity, already turned bearish in early November last year and has yet to recover." In fact, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,199 on Oct. 1 last year, but later gave back its gains and ended the year below its price at the start of the year ($93,576). As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $88,700. Moreno put the trough of this bear market in the $56,000 to $60,000 range. The estimate is based on the 'realized price' (the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders). "Looking at past cases, in bear markets the price tends to fall to around the realized price," he said, adding that "this would be roughly a 55% drop from the peak, indicating relatively solid downside resilience compared with past downcycles that saw 70–80% collapses." Still, the market’s structural soundness is seen as improved versus the past. That is because there are no major systemic risks such as the 2022 Terra-Luna debacle or FTX’s collapse, and institutional capital channeled through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is supporting the market. "In previous bear markets, demand contracted sharply, but now there is structural demand from institutions and ETFs that buy on a regular basis," Moreno added. "They are absorbing supply and reducing market volatility."

U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said China could reap a windfall if the United States bans interest payments on dollar-denominated stablecoins. Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s Chief Policy Officer (CPO), wrote on X on the 31st (local time) that “in the debate over whether to allow rewards (interest) on U.S.-issued stablecoins, the People’s Bank of China’s recent announcement that it will pay interest on the digital yuan is a highly timely warning.” Earlier, the PBOC announced on the 29th that it would “allow commercial banks to pay interest on the digital yuan starting next January,” effectively granting it the same legal status as deposit money. The digital yuan is a central bank digital currency (CBDC) issued by the PBOC. By contrast, the U.S. GENIUS Act (the stablecoin bill) prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest. The Blockchain Association recently sent a letter to the U.S. Congress opposing the relevant provision in the GENIUS Act. Shirzad stressed that “if this issue is mishandled during negotiations over the crypto market structure bill (the CLARITY Act) now being discussed in the Senate, it could hand a decisive competitive advantage to non-dollar stablecoins and CBDCs.” He added that “the timing would also be the worst possible,” saying that what parties to the CLARITY Act negotiations must safeguard is “U.S. dollar and financial-system hegemony, not incumbent interests.” Meanwhile, the American Bankers Association (ABA) argues that the GENIUS Act’s ban on stablecoin interest payments should be enforced strictly. The Block reported that “(the ABA) claims some crypto exchanges are interpreting the GENIUS Act in a way that would allow rewards-based incentives (for stablecoins), which could undermine traditional banking activities.”

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) prices are likely to continue moving sideways within a range this year as well. A CryptoQuant contributor from XWIN Research Japan said on the 1st (local time) via CryptoQuant that “as 2026 begins, it is still difficult to say that Bitcoin has clearly entered a new bull phase,” adding that “the market remains in a ‘high-volatility’ range.” XWIN Research Japan noted that “broader adoption of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and supply constraints are acting as long-term support factors,” but also said that “macroeconomic uncertainty, political variables surrounding the U.S. midterm elections, and the ongoing derivatives-led price discovery are continuously limiting (Bitcoin’s) directional move.” XWIN Research Japan forecast that Bitcoin prices are likely to follow a “Twisted Range” pattern this year. He said that “at this point, (the market) is conditionally neutral or a weak bear market,” adding that “there is still a lack of structural confirmation to underpin strong upside momentum.” He continued, “Expectations for rate cuts persist, but a recovery in the real economy has not fully taken hold, and capital inflows are being driven by short-term ETF flows,” pointing out that “in this case, Bitcoin is likely to move within a wide range of $80,000 to $140,000.” He added that “the $90,000 to $120,000 zone is likely to become the key trading area.” He also mentioned the possibility of falling below $80,000. XWIN Research Japan analyzed that “if recession risks increase, deleveraging and ETF outflows could coincide and push Bitcoin below $80,000,” adding that “in an extreme case, the possibility of a decline into the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.” He also said that “if ETF inflows and other factors stabilize, Bitcoin could extend gains into the $120,000 to $170,000 range,” but added that “prices beyond that would be possible only if multiple favorable conditions are met simultaneously.”

Shares of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), have reportedly declined for six consecutive months. According to CoinDesk on the 1st (local time), Strategy’s monthly rate of change in its share price posted declines for six straight months from July through December last year. This marks the first time Strategy shares have fallen for six consecutive months since the company announced in 2020 that it would begin stockpiling Bitcoin. Strategy’s annual share-price change for last year was tallied at -47.53%. CoinDesk said that “during the 2022 bear market, (Strategy shares) plunged sharply and then rebounded more than 40% within a few months,” adding that “the lack of a rebound in the second half of last year suggests the decline (in Strategy shares) reflects an ongoing price correction rather than short-term selling.” More specifically, the steepest monthly drop came in November last year (-34.26%), followed by October (-16.36%), December (-14.24%), and September (-3.65%). CoinDesk noted that “Strategy shares fell 59.3% over the past six months,” while “Bitcoin held up relatively well over the same period.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) plans to finalize on the 15th of this month whether to remove Strategy from its indexes. MSCI is known to have been discussing a potential index deletion with Strategy since the second half of last year. Strategy is currently included in the MSCI USA and MSCI World indexes. U.S. digital-asset manager Bitwise recently assessed the likelihood of Strategy being removed from MSCI indexes at more than 75%.

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An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) short-term investors have become more sensitive to price volatility than before. CryptoZeno, a CryptoQuant contributor, said via CryptoQuant on the 31st (local time) that "Bitcoin short-term holders’ (STH) SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is moving sideways around 1.0, the key baseline." CryptoZeno explained that "short-term holders’ SOPR is a behavior-based on-chain indicator showing whether they are taking profits or selling while accepting losses," adding that "(the recent SOPR trend) indicates market participants’ confidence is extremely fragile." CryptoZeno stressed that "throughout the observation period, short-term holders’ SOPR failed to sustain a meaningful breakout above 1.0." He continued, "There were instances where it temporarily entered a profit-taking zone, but the pattern repeatedly reverted quickly to neutral or loss-realization territory," adding that "this means (Bitcoin) short-term holders are reacting extremely sensitively to price fluctuations and lack the conviction to maintain positions through volatility." The analysis also said upside momentum in the SOPR indicator has been limited. CryptoZeno noted, "The fact that short-term holders’ SOPR has not been able to hold steadily above 1.0 means current demand is not sufficiently absorbing supply from recent buyers who entered near the top," adding that "as a result, attempts at (price) gains continue to run into overhead resistance, keeping momentum expansion constrained." He also suggested the current phase could be in the late stage of a bear market. CryptoZeno said, "Periods when short-term holders’ SOPR clearly fell below 1.0 appeared closely intertwined with sharp price corrections," analyzing that "this indicates selling pressure was dominated by stress-driven selling rather than strategic selling." He added, "Such patterns generally emerge in the late stages of a bear market or in the early recovery phase," and said, "During such periods, investors tend to prioritize capital preservation over trend-following." He also mentioned the possibility of additional downside. CryptoZeno analyzed, "Until conditions are in place for short-term holders to realize profits stably without immediate selling, the Bitcoin market is likely to remain structurally fragile," adding that "if (SOPR) deteriorates, the risk of further rangebound trading or an expansion in downside volatility could increase."

US spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) swung back to net outflows just a day after returning to net inflows. According to crypto analytics firm SosoValue on 1 August (local time), US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $348 million the previous day (31 July). They flipped back to net outflows just one day after turning to net inflows on 30 July. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.09 billion in July alone. Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $99.3 million leave the fund. ARK Invest’s ARKB and Grayscale’s GBTC recorded net outflows of $76.53 million and $69.09 million, respectively. Fidelity’s FBTC also posted net outflows of $66.58 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs showed a similar pattern. They saw $72.06 million pulled out the previous day. As with spot Bitcoin ETFs, this was a return to net outflows just one day after turning to net inflows on 30 July. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $616.8 million in July. That means a combined $1.7 billion has been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs over the past month. In detail, Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust ETF led the outflows, with $31.98 million leaving the fund. BlackRock’s ETHA also recorded net outflows of $21.56 million.

While the rollout of altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is expanding in the U.S., analysts say they are unlikely to post the kind of growth seen by Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs. According to crypto media outlet The Block on the 1st (local time), Ben Slavin, global head of the ETF business at BNY Mellon, said of the altcoin ETF market that "the pace of launches is accelerating, and some investor demand is being confirmed." However, he projected that "unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which hold about 7% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, it won’t be easy for altcoin ETFs to scale to that level." He added that altcoin ETFs tend to react more sensitively to market price movements. Slavin said, "In the short term, altcoin ETFs could see repeated inflows and outflows as prices fluctuate," adding, "Over the long term, however, investor interest could gradually expand." In this context, Monica Long, president of Ripple Labs, stressed that the crypto ETF market is still in its early stages. She noted, "Although more than 40 crypto ETFs launched last year, their share of the U.S. ETF market remains minimal." She continued, "If adoption of crypto ETFs expands, corporate and institutional participation in the market could be brought forward," explaining that "interest is growing—particularly among large companies—in treasury strategies using digital assets and in tokenized-asset investing."

Altcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches are expanding in the United States, but an analysis suggests it will be difficult for them to post growth on par with Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs. According to crypto-focused media outlet The Block on the 1st (local time), Ben Slavin, global head of ETFs at BNY Mellon, assessed the altcoin ETF market, saying that "the pace of launches is accelerating and some investor demand is being confirmed." However, he projected that "unlike Bitcoin ETFs, which hold about 7% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, it will not be easy for altcoin ETFs to expand to that level." He added that altcoin ETFs tend to react sensitively to market price moves. Slavin said, "In the short term, altcoin ETFs may see repeated inflows and outflows depending on price fluctuations," adding that "over the long term, investor interest could gradually broaden." In this regard, Monica Long, president of Ripple Labs, stressed that the crypto ETF market is still in its early stages. She noted that "more than 40 crypto ETFs were launched last year, but their share of the U.S. ETF market remains negligible." She continued, "If crypto ETF adoption expands, it could pull forward market participation by companies and institutions," explaining that "interest is growing—particularly among large corporations—in treasury strategies using digital assets and in investments in tokenized assets."

Government moves to cap controlling shareholders’ stakes…13 years after the first domestic exchange was founded Shift from notification to licensing Public-interest mandate likely to be sharply strengthened Separation of finance and industry effectively eased Encouraging equity participation by incumbent financial firms Direct hit to Dunamu, Bithumb and others Spillover to exchange M&A The government is moving to restrict the ownership stakes of controlling shareholders at domestic virtual-asset exchanges, where trading volume exceeds KRW 1,000 trillion. It marks a sweeping governance overhaul, 13 years after virtual-asset exchanges were first established in Korea. With the number of exchange users reaching 11 million, the aim is to strengthen public-interest functions through “dispersed ownership.” As all five major domestic exchanges fall within the scope, the policy is also expected to become a key variable for big-ticket deals involving Naver and Mirae Asset, which are respectively pursuing Dunamu and Korbit acquisitions. Controlling shareholders’ stake capped at up to 20% According to the industry on the 31st, a proposal under serious consideration for the Financial Services Commission’s planned Digital Asset Framework Act would cap a virtual-asset exchange controlling shareholder’s stake at 15–20%. The idea is to redefine virtual-asset exchanges as public infrastructure on par with alternative trading systems (ATS). Under the current Capital Markets Act, an ATS cannot own more than 15% of voting shares, including shares held by related parties. Only when financial companies, public offering funds and the like obtain FSC approval may they exceptionally hold more than 15%. Nextrade is owned on a split basis, with seven securities firms—including Korea Investment and Mirae Asset—each holding 6.64%. The push to overhaul virtual-asset exchange governance is seen as an attempt to fix the current structure in which a small number of founders or shareholders wield outsized influence over overall operations. It is also intended to break the market dominance of the top two players, including Upbit and Bithumb, and to build an ecosystem where diverse operators can enter and compete fairly. A core pillar is a proposal to shift the current notification system to a licensing regime. Until now, oversight has relied on indirect management and control through banks that provide real-name accounts, without direct licensing by financial authorities or governance reviews. Once the law is enacted, exchanges would likely need a business license from financial authorities to operate. In that process, fit-and-proper reviews of controlling shareholders and ownership-dispersion requirements are expected to serve as key yardsticks. The “separation of finance and industry” principle, which has limited the combination of traditional finance and virtual-asset businesses, is also likely to be eased. That is because ensuring market stability and effective supervision during ownership dispersion would be difficult without participation from regulated financial institutions. If combined with industry-promotion measures expected to be included in the bill, the largely retail-driven domestic digital-asset market could also be upgraded into areas such as institutional investment, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and security tokens (STO). A financial industry official said, “The exchange business has an adult-sized scale, but its governance and user-protection systems are still at a child’s level,” adding, “This is the moment for fundamental change.” Stake reductions likely unavoidable To continue operating after the law takes effect, the largest shareholders of Korea’s five KRW-based virtual-asset exchanges would have to sell down their stakes. At Dunamu, which runs Upbit, Chairman Song Chi-hyung is the largest shareholder with a 25.52% stake. At Bithumb, Bithumb Holdings owns 73.56%. At Coinone, CEO Cha Myung-hoon, the founder, holds 53.44% including shares held via a personal company, while at Korbit, NXC holds 60.5%. In the case of Gopax, the overseas exchange Binance holds 67.45%. Many exchanges also have multiple major shareholders other than the largest shareholder holding 20% or more. Their stake reductions appear inevitable. This is why observers say Naver’s and Mirae Asset’s plans to bring Dunamu and Korbit into their respective folds could face setbacks. Naver said it would make Dunamu a second-tier subsidiary through a share swap between its subsidiary Naver Pay and Dunamu. Because the structure would have Naver Pay owning 100% of Dunamu, it would run afoul of the controlling-shareholder stake cap. Accordingly, the equity structure will likely need to be redesigned. The same applies to Mirae Asset, which is planning to acquire Korbit. Mirae Asset signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to buy stakes held by Korbit’s largest shareholder NXC and second-largest shareholder SK Planet (31.5%). However, if the relevant regulations materialize, significant constraints are expected on Mirae Asset’s ability to acquire control of Korbit. A financial industry official said, “A sufficient grace period can be granted during the shift to a licensing regime,” adding, “Stake adjustments are also likely to proceed in phases accordingly.” Reporter Cho Mi-hyun / Seo Hyung-kyo mwise@hankyung.com

U.S. initial jobless claims last week came in well below market expectations. The U.S. Department of Labor said on the 31st (local time) that initial claims totaled 199,000 last week. That is 20,000 below economists’ forecast of 219,000. It is also 16,000 fewer than the prior week’s revised figure of 215,000. Continuing claims—filed by those who have collected unemployment benefits for two consecutive weeks—were 1.866 million. That is 47,000 fewer than the prior week’s revised 1.913 million. Initial jobless claims are a gauge of overheating in the U.S. labor market. A rise in claims can be interpreted as a sign that an overheated labor market is cooling. Economists are watching employment indicators such as jobless claims to assess how U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies are affecting corporate decision-making.

U.S. crypto (digital asset) lobbying groups are moving to expand their influence in Washington ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The effort is seen as laying the groundwork to maintain and strengthen a pro-crypto legislative environment. According to Cointelegraph, a crypto-focused U.S. media outlet, major domestic crypto lobbying organizations are stepping up lobbying and media advertising campaigns in preparation for the midterm cycle. Stand With Crypto, a nonprofit lobbying group backed by Coinbase, has expanded campaigns targeting Congress and voters. As a result, many lawmakers newly seated in the 119th U.S. Congress have reportedly already said they will support pro-crypto bills and policies. Fairshake, a leading Super PAC in the crypto industry, has also continued its activities. After gaining prominence in the 2024 presidential election, Fairshake also spent about $2.5 million in 2025 special elections, maintaining support for pro-crypto candidates. In the U.S. midterm elections to be held in November 2026, all 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats will be up for election. The outcome is seen as a key variable that could have a significant impact on the future regulatory and legislative environment for crypto assets. The outlet noted that if Democrats secure a majority in either the House or the Senate in the midterms, efforts to advance crypto-related legislation could be constrained, especially when combined with the possibility of President Donald Trump exercising his veto power. Accordingly, the crypto industry is viewed as intensifying strategic moves to shore up its political base ahead of the election.

High prices have built up, now compounded by the recent rise in the exchange rate Global crude prices are falling, but domestic fuel prices are rising Processed food and dining-out prices up nearly 25% over five years Fruit and vegetable prices fell, but…base effects loom large This year’s inflation: the exchange rate and weather conditions are key ‘variables’ Last year’s consumer inflation rate was tallied at 2.1%. It is the lowest level in five years since 2020, when COVID-19 took hold in earnest. It is also not far from the authorities’ 2% target. Yet few people felt that “prices were really stable” last year. That is because high prices have accumulated over a long period, and a weak won has also stirred up prices for petroleum products and imported agricultural goods. The National Data Center released “December 2025 and Full-Year Consumer Price Trends” on Dec. 31, the last day of the year. The consumer inflation rate for December came in at 2.3%. Once again, the key driver was the exchange rate. As petroleum product prices rose 6.1%, they posted the largest increase in 10 months since February last year (6.3%). Even as global crude prices fall, domestic fuel prices are rising after passing through a “high-exchange-rate filter.” A National Data Center official explained: “Based on Dubai crude, international oil prices edged down from $64.5 per barrel in November last year to an average of $62.1 from Dec. 1 to 24, but over the same period the won–dollar exchange rate rose from 1,457 won to 1,472 won, offsetting the decline.” Prices of imported fruit such as bananas (6.1%), mangoes (7.1%) and kiwifruit (18.2%) were also not immune to the exchange-rate effect. Imported beef rose 8% as the weak won was compounded by poorer harvest conditions in major supplier countries such as the United States. In addition, prices of mainly domestically produced agricultural items also increased 4.1%, including rice (18.6%), apples (19.6%) and tangerines (15.1%). Among agricultural products, grain prices rose 11%, marking the largest increase in seven years since 2018 (21.9%). A major factor was a 7.7% jump in rice prices due to the government’s excessive market withdrawals. The government purchase price for public rice reserves—set based on farmgate rice prices during the harvest season—hit a record high last year at 80,160 won per 40 kg (Grade 1). Vegetable (-3.4%) and fruit (-1.3%) prices fell year on year, but the view is that this is an optical effect driven by base effects. In 2024, when a heat wave hit, vegetable and fruit prices rose 25% and 16.9%, respectively. Prices of livestock and seafood products also rose 4.8% and 5.9%, respectively, last year—more than double the headline inflation rate. Processed food prices rose 3.6% last year, while dining-out prices increased 3.1%, with both posting gains in the 3% range. Dining-out inflation has exceeded 3% for four consecutive years since 2022 (7.7%). Processed food and dining out are sensitive price indicators for urban office workers, and they have risen 24–25% over the five years since 2020. Petroleum products rose 2.4% last year, turning back to an uptrend for the first time in three years since 2022 (22.2%). The National Data Center said: “Separately from the overall price index, there are many individual items where prices have jumped sharply,” adding: “A gap can arise between the official inflation indicators and the inflation consumers feel.” How will inflation move this year? The authorities again point to the exchange rate as a key variable. A weak won is likely to first feed into prices for petroleum products and imported raw materials, and then spread more broadly to areas such as dining out and processed foods. The Bank of Korea, in last month’s “2026 Monetary and Credit Policy Operating Direction,” projected that a weak won and a recovery in domestic demand could become upside pressures on inflation this year. A Ministry of Economy and Finance official said: “Price fluctuations in agricultural, livestock and seafood products due to geopolitical risks or weather conditions could act as variables.” Reporter Lee Gwang-sik bumeran@hankyung.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently undergone a correction, and short-term holders’ profit metrics have deteriorated. On the 31st (KST), CryptoQuant contributor “CryptoZeno” said in a report, “Bitcoin’s short-term holder SOPR is hovering near the baseline of 1.0,” adding, “This suggests that market participants’ confidence has been very weak recently.” Short-term holder SOPR is an indicator that shows whether short-term investors are currently realizing profits or losses. If the metric is above 1, it means they are in profit; conversely, if it is below 1, it indicates they are currently at a loss. The contributor explained, “Recently, the short-term holder SOPR has been unable to break above 1.0,” adding, “This means short-term holders are reacting very sensitively to price fluctuations and have yet to build sufficient conviction to withstand volatility.” He added, “Demand still does not appear sufficient to absorb supply that entered near the highs.” Accordingly, the contributor assessed that there is a high likelihood Bitcoin will remain in an unstable state. He stressed, “Until conditions are in place for short-term holders to realize profits stably without immediate selling, the Bitcoin market is likely to remain in a structurally fragile phase,” adding, “If the short-term holder SOPR moves above 1 in the future, it could be interpreted as a sign of improving confidence and a recovery in demand.”

Leverage unwound, triggering a record $19 billion in liquidations Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, ended 2025’s “roller-coaster” trading with an annual loss for the first time in three years. According to Coinbase, a U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, as of 5 p.m. Eastern Time on the 31st, one bitcoin was priced at $87,646. It was trading around that level, down about 7% from the start of the year. As a result, unless there is a notable rebound later in the evening, bitcoin will turn negative on the year for the first time in three years. Bitcoin had posted gains for the past two years since 2022. This year, bitcoin saw extreme volatility, simultaneously setting a new record high and recording the largest liquidation on record. Buoyed by expectations for U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies—after he billed himself as a “crypto president”—bitcoin started the year on an upswing. But in April, when President Trump opened what he called a “tariff war” against the world, it plunged alongside equity markets. Later, sentiment improved across the crypto market, including bitcoin, after the so-called GENIUS Act—legislation to bring dollar-pegged stablecoins (value-stabilized digital assets) into the regulatory fold—was enacted. Bitcoin also managed a rebound. As the rally extended into early October, bitcoin hit $126,210 on Oct. 6, setting a new all-time high. However, just days after the record, on Oct. 10, President Trump announced 100% tariffs on imports from China and said export controls would also be imposed on key software, freezing markets again. In the process, leveraged positions funded with borrowed money were forcibly unwound, sparking liquidations totaling $19 billion (about 27.4 trillion won), the largest in cryptocurrency history. Investors’ expectations for an October “Uptober” rally and a November “Moonvember” surge were dashed in succession. November in particular logged the steepest monthly decline since mid-2021. Experts say bitcoin this year cemented its identity in global financial markets as a risk asset akin to equities. Linh Tran, chief market analyst at XS.com, told Reuters that “2025 was a year when bitcoin’s risk-asset characteristics became even more pronounced,” adding that it “showed a high correlation with the U.S. stock market over multiple periods.” The implication is that bitcoin—once dubbed “digital gold” and seen as an alternative investment that moved independently of stocks—is increasingly mirroring equity-market sentiment amid heavy inflows from institutional and retail investors. Analysts expect bitcoin to remain sensitive next year to key equity-market drivers such as monetary policy and debates over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Park Subin, Hankyung.com reporter waterbean@hankyung.com

Activity on the Ethereum (ETH) network has been shown to have reached its highest level in two years. A CryptoOnChain contributor to CryptoQuant said on the 31st (local time) via CryptoQuant that "as of the 29th, Ethereum’s network 'Transfer Count' surged to 1.06 million," calling it "the highest level since October 2023." Transfer Count is an on-chain indicator that shows how frequently tokens or specific addresses have been transferred on the blockchain. CryptoOnChain noted that "(the Transfer Count) showed high volatility throughout Q4 this year." It added, "By contrast, Ethereum’s price has seen a steep correction from around $4,500—its year-to-date high—to around $2,900," and analyzed that "the sharp jump in Transfer Count nevertheless suggests a growing divergence between market price and on-chain usage." It went on to stress that "when Transfer Count surges during a declining price phase, it can generally be interpreted in two scenarios." CryptoOnChain said, "One is panic selling close to capitulation," and "the other is a pickup in on-chain activity such as DeFi and non-fungible token (NFT) issuance driven by lower gas fees." It added, "This surge exceeds all peaks in 2024 and 2025," meaning "asset turnover on-chain has strengthened significantly."

A warning has emerged that the security of encrypted messengers could be effectively undermined if artificial intelligence (AI) is integrated down to the device operating system level. Executives at the decentralized messenger Session said the spread of AI, users’ lack of awareness, and regulatory pressure are threatening the future of private messaging. According to a Cointelegraph report on the 31st (local time), Alex Linton, head of the Session Technology Foundation, said, “The way AI analyzes and stores information inside a device creates enormous privacy and security problems.” He added that in an average smartphone or computer environment, truly private communication itself could become impossible. Linton explained that the risks grow even larger if AI operates at the operating system (OS) level. “If AI is integrated into the operating system, it could completely bypass messenger encryption,” he said, adding, “No one knows how encrypted information is used after being passed to a black-box AI.” He warned that “at that point, you won’t even be able to know what is actually happening on the device.” Session co-founder Chris McCabe also pointed to users’ lack of awareness about their data as a key issue. “Many people don’t properly understand how their data is used, or what can be done with it,” he said. He added that “data can be used—through advertising or algorithms—to steer people into behaviors they don’t even want.” Such concerns have also surfaced through recent cases. OpenAI has said that some user data was exposed due to a hack of a third-party data analytics firm. That information could be abused for phishing or social engineering attacks, and a feature that shared chat histories on the web was also discovered at one point. Linton also cited the regulatory burden, referencing the European Union’s (EU) proposed ‘Chat Control’ bill that would mandate the scanning of private messages. “People who build encryption tools are feeling significant pressure,” he said. “These technologies are not designed to aid crime; they exist to protect users’ information and make the online space a better place.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) posted a negative return in the fourth quarter last year for the first time in three years. According to CoinGlass on the 1st (local time), Bitcoin’s Q4 return last year was tallied at -23.07%. It marked the first negative reading in three years since 2022 (-14.75%). In terms of the magnitude of the decline, it was the steepest in seven years since Q4 2018 (-42.16%). Ethereum (ETH) recorded a Q4 return of -28.28% last year. Ethereum also turned negative for the first time in three years since 2022 (-9.94%). By the rate of decline, it ranks fourth after 2018 (-41.62%), 2016 (-39.47%), and 2019 (-28.9%).

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Concerns were raised that if STAT’s price falls to 50 won, the financial soundness of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could be shaken, but leading analysts drew a line, saying bankruptcy risk is an overinterpretation. According to a report by NewsBTC on the 31st (local time), an analyst at Bull Theory said that even if STAT drops to 50 won, a level cited as a key support, it is unlikely that Strategy will fall into financial distress. They pointed out that the “forced selling” and “liquidity crunch” scenarios recently raised in parts of the market do not sufficiently reflect the company’s financial structure. Strategy currently holds about 672,497 STAT, worth roughly 33.62 million won at market value. By contrast, the company’s total debt is about 5.57 million won. Bull Theory explained that even if STAT falls to 50 won, the value of the STAT holdings would still be about 33.62 million won, far exceeding liabilities. The view is that the structure would not lead to insolvency even in that case. Analysts emphasized that Strategy does not use margin trading like a hedge fund. The STAT the company holds is not pledged as collateral, and there would be no margin calls or forced liquidations triggered by a price decline. They also said that most of Strategy’s borrowings are unsecured convertible bonds, meaning creditors cannot demand the sale of STAT solely because the price falls. On the liquidity front as well, near-term pressure is seen as limited. Strategy has about 14.79 million won in cash and cash equivalents, enough to cover roughly 5.07 million–5.40 million won a year in dividend and interest payments for about 32 months. Analysts said this reduces the likelihood of a short-term cash crunch. Still, external factors were cited as drivers behind Strategy’s recent share-price weakness. Since October, MSCI has been reviewing the possibility of revising its rules to exclude from its indexes companies that hold more than 50% of their assets in STAT, stoking concerns about selling by index-tracking funds. A final decision on the item is slated for January 15, 2026. In addition, JPMorgan raised the margin requirement for trading Strategy shares from 50% to 95%, prompting some investors to reduce positions, and an analysis said the resulting selling pressure weighed on the stock. Bull Theory, however, pointed to “dilution risk” as a long-term factor that warrants caution. Strategy has repeatedly issued new shares to buy additional STAT, and continued capital increases during downturns could erode the value of existing shareholders. In particular, the possibility that additional fundraising could be constrained if the share-price-to-net-asset-value (NAV) ratio falls below 1 was presented as a medium- to long-term headwind. Meanwhile, STAT was trading at about 60 won as of the time of writing, up about 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Strategy shares also moved at around 157 won per share, up about 1.25% over the same period.

Justin Sun, founder of Tron (TRX), has been found to have purchased Litera (LIT) tokens worth $33 million (about 48 billion won). According to BlockBeats on the 1st (local time), Sun recently bought 13.25 million Litera tokens. The amount he deployed for the purchase was about $33 million. The Litera tokens he acquired this time account for 5.32% of the total circulating supply. Compared with total token supply, the purchase equals 1.33%. Meanwhile, Litera on the 30th of last month conducted a token airdrop worth $675 million (about 1 trillion won) for early participants. This airdrop is the 10th-largest in cryptocurrency history.

Commodities market outlook Wall Street piles into bets on a broad gold rally JPMorgan: “$5,055 per troy ounce” Central banks and retail hoarding continue Copper’s rally, up 41% last year, set to extend May surge to $15,000 per ton Demand rises on data centers and grid buildouts Up 51% in three months… Silver the biggest gainer Volatility so high the market has given up forecasting Global investment banks (IBs) expect the commodities rally that heated up equity markets last year to continue into the new year. With policy-rate cuts anticipated from the U.S. leading other countries, buying interest seeking an inflation hedge is expected to concentrate in gold. Copper, which has emerged as a key raw material for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, is also forecast to post strong returns this year. The $5,000 gold era is coming According to the financial investment industry on the 1st, the U.S. “big five IBs” by market capitalization—JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs—have all projected that gold prices will rise from the end of last year ($4,319 per troy ounce). The most conservative call came from Wells Fargo at $4,700 per troy ounce. Goldman Sachs put it at $4,900, and JPMorgan forecast a rise to $5,055 by the fourth quarter this year. Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan, said, “Since 2023, central banks have been reducing the share of dollars in their reserves and increasing gold purchases, and this trend is likely to reach 755t per troy ounce next year,” adding, “Gold will reach $5,055 per troy ounce by end-2026 and $5,400 by end-2027.” The drivers behind gold’s strength include U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and rising gold demand from central banks. The view is that these supply-demand conditions are combining to push gold prices higher. There was also a projection that gold could surge above $5,000 per troy ounce as retail investors step up gold hoarding in earnest. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven said, “Gold accounts for just 0.17% of U.S. retail investor portfolios,” adding, “For every 0.01%-point increase in that allocation by individuals drawn in by last year’s return (63.8%), gold prices would rise an additional 1.4% versus current forecasts.” Silver that even Wall Street has given up forecasting Industrial non-ferrous metals—posting performance comparable to gold last year—are also drawing attention as an attractive asset class. In particular, the standout is copper, which rose 41.76% last year. Copper prices have historically tracked manufacturing and construction cycles, but since the second half of last year they appear to have joined an “AI rally,” on the view that copper is being used in large volumes for AI infrastructure such as power grids and cooling facilities. On the 5th of last month, Citigroup said, “Expectations that the Donald Trump administration will impose tariffs on copper imports starting in 2027 have triggered a sharp jump in demand to build copper inventories in the U.S.,” adding, “Copper prices are expected to rise to $13,000 per ton in the first half of this year and, depending on interest-rate conditions, as high as $15,000.” Silver, which has shown extreme volatility this year, is an asset that even major players in the securities industry have effectively given up trying to forecast. Silver has more diverse industrial uses than gold, but its lower price and smaller market size have made it prone to extreme swings driven by speculative demand. In particular, since October last year, its per-troy-ounce price has surged 51.3% in just three months, repeatedly reaching one-year price targets within days. In a November report last year, when silver was trading in the low-$50s per troy ounce, JPMorgan projected that “silver prices will gradually rise to $58 per troy ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026,” but in reality it surpassed that level on December 5. Citigroup likewise said in October last year that “silver will rise to $70 within the next 12 months,” but it reached that level in just two months. Neither institution has issued follow-up forecasts for silver since. Reporter Beomjin Jeon forward@hankyung.com

Tether (USDT), the issuer of the dollar-pegged stablecoin, bought around 8,900 bitcoin (BTC) in the fourth quarter of last year, data showed. Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s chief executive officer (CEO), said on X on the 1st that “Tether bought 8,888 bitcoin in Q4 of last year.” The purchase reportedly pushed Tether’s bitcoin holdings above 96,000. Cointelegraph reported that “Tether invests up to 15% of its quarterly profits in bitcoin,” adding that its bitcoin holdings are the second-largest among private companies. Tether has also been aggressively buying gold. Tether purchased 26 tons in the third quarter of last year alone. On a quarterly basis, that volume exceeds purchases by major countries’ central banks. Tether’s gold holdings are said to total 116 tons. Tether is also buying bitcoin through Twenty One Capital, a New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)-listed company in the United States. Twenty One Capital is a digital-asset treasury strategy (DAT) firm in which Tether is the largest shareholder. According to BitcoinTreasuries, Twenty One Capital’s bitcoin holdings stood at 43,514 as of the day, the third-largest among listed companies after Strategy and Mara Holdings.

China-linked crypto investment firm LD Capital has signaled its intention to buy more Ethereum (ETH). Jack Yi, founder of LD Capital, said on the 1st (local time) that “assuming we are optimistic about a major bull market in 2026, we will add to (Ethereum) boldly and continuously.” Previously, LD Capital stepped up its Ethereum stockpiling in November last year through its affiliate Trend Research. Trend Research is reported to have accumulated about 600,000 ETH over the past two months. Yi stressed that he “doesn’t care about price fluctuations of a few hundred dollars.” He added that “(the additional Ethereum purchases) follow the strategy we used in the first half of this year as Ethereum rose from the $1,000s to above the $2,000s,” and that “(stockpiling) is trend investing, and success or failure depends on how well our view of the future is realized.” Trend Research is said to be preparing fundraising of $1 billion (about KRW 1.4 trillion) to stockpile Ethereum. In this regard, Yi has said that “with $1 billion, we will buy Ethereum every time the price drops.” Meanwhile, as of 6:07 p.m. today, Ethereum is trading at $2,978.64 on CoinMarketCap, up 0.34% from the previous day. Compared with a week ago, it is up 1.79%.

Unwinding of leveraged bets leads to record $19 billion in liquidations Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, swung in a “roller-coaster” market in 2025 and is poised to post an annual loss for the first time in three years. According to U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase on the 31st (local time), as of 5 p.m. Eastern Time, one bitcoin was priced at $87,646. That is about 7% lower than at the start of the year and continues to fluctuate around that level. As a result, absent a notable rebound in the evening, bitcoin will turn negative on the year for the first time in three years. Bitcoin had risen for two consecutive years since 2022. This year, bitcoin posted extreme volatility, simultaneously setting a new all-time high and seeing record liquidations. Expectations for U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies—after he styled himself a “crypto president”—helped bitcoin start the year on an upswing. But in April, when Trump opened a “tariff war” against countries worldwide, bitcoin plunged alongside equities. Later, tailwinds returned to the crypto market, including bitcoin, after the so-called “Genius Act” was enacted to bring stablecoins (value-stabilized digital assets pegged to the U.S. dollar) into the regulated system. Bitcoin also managed to rebound. As the rally extended into early October, bitcoin hit $126,210 on Oct. 6, resetting its all-time high. However, just days after that record, markets froze again on Oct. 10 when Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China and said export controls would also be imposed on key software. In the process, leveraged positions funded with borrowed money were forcibly unwound, triggering liquidations totaling $19 billion (about 27.4 trillion won), the largest in crypto history. Investors’ hopes for an October “Uptober” and a November “Moonvember” rally were dashed in succession. November in particular recorded the biggest monthly drop since mid-2021. Experts say bitcoin this year cemented its character as a “risk asset,” akin to equities, in global financial markets. Lynn Tran, chief market analyst at financial firm XS.com, told Reuters, “2025 was a year when bitcoin’s risk-asset traits became even more pronounced,” adding that it “showed a high correlation with the U.S. stock market across multiple periods.” That suggests bitcoin—once dubbed “digital gold” and seen as an alternative investment moving independently from equities—is increasingly mirroring stock-market sentiment as institutional and retail investors have poured in. Analysts expect bitcoin next year to remain highly sensitive to key equity-market drivers such as monetary policy and debates over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble. Park Subin, Hankyung.com reporter waterbean@hankyung.com

Turkmenistan has legalised virtual asset (cryptocurrency) mining and the operation of exchanges. The move is aimed at diversifying an economy dependent on natural gas exports and attracting foreign investment. According to Coinpedia on 1 January (local time), the “Law on Virtual Assets” signed by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedow on 28 November last year has officially come into force this year. The legislation primarily allows virtual asset mining and the operation of exchanges in Turkmenistan only for licensed entities and individual entrepreneurs approved by the government. However, this is a limited legalisation under strict state control. Companies seeking to operate must obtain a licence and will be subject to ongoing oversight by relevant authorities, including the central bank, the cabinet and the Ministry of Finance and Economy. The government said it will crack down aggressively on unauthorised illegal mining and trading. Exchanges must also comply with tax obligations and establish monitoring systems to prevent virtual assets from being used for illicit activities such as money laundering. The law defines virtual assets as “digital assets,” not legal tender. As a result, they cannot be used in daily life for payments or wage disbursements, and are recognised only as investment assets that may be held and traded under regulatory supervision. Licensed virtual-asset service providers must keep most customer assets in cold wallets and comply with anti-money laundering (AML) requirements.

Expectations are growing that Bitcoin will benefit this year as liquidity flows into global markets amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift toward easier monetary policy. Analysts say risk appetite for assets that had been damped by the tightening cycle is likely to return. On Jan. 1 (local time), Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra, said in an interview with Schwab Network that “the Fed is already laying the groundwork for an easing stance.” Barhydt described the Fed’s recent moves as a “lite version of quantitative easing (QE).” He said, “The Fed has begun buying bonds on its own to support demand for U.S. Treasuries,” adding that “next year, Treasury demand is likely to fall alongside rate cuts, and that combination is a positive signal for all assets, including Bitcoin.” Beyond liquidity provision, he also cited greater regulatory clarity in the U.S. and increased participation by institutional investors as additional tailwinds. “As low rates and clearer regulation converge, the digital-asset market will post strong growth for years,” he said, arguing that the current upswing is unlikely to be a one-off cycle. Still, some caution that it is too early to expect rapid rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch, traders see the probability of a rate cut at the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 14.9%. That is a sharp drop from 23% on Nov. 1, suggesting the market’s anticipated policy pivot could be delayed. A more cautious view has also emerged that Bitcoin may trend higher steadily rather than spike explosively. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at Bitwise, said in an interview last week, “Bitcoin will see strong but gradual gains over the next 10 years.” He added, “Investors should expect lower volatility and steadier performance than the explosive returns seen in past cycles.”