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Iran Power Struggle Deepens, Clouding Strait of Hormuz Policy

Bloomingbit Newsroom

Summary

A serious internal power struggle in Iran, along with a vacuum in the top leadership, is fueling confusion over Strait of Hormuz policy.
The internal fight for power is also affecting the structure of negotiations with the US, with Iran sending a large delegation that includes senior decision-makers.
Even if Iran returns to the negotiating table, deep divisions within its delegation will make reaching a deal difficult, and any agreement would face a high risk of quickly unraveling because of internal conflict.

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A deepening power struggle inside Iran is complicating negotiations with the US, according to an analysis. With no supreme leader in place after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death, the infighting is also fueling confusion over policy on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Economist reported on April 20 in an article headlined “Which Iran Is America Negotiating With?” that Tehran’s conflicting messages on the Strait of Hormuz are a sign of a power struggle playing out in the absence of an absolute leader.

The internal tensions were also on display at the first round of talks. At negotiations held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12, Iran unusually sent a delegation of 80 people, including 30 decision-makers. That contrasted with past talks with the US, when Tehran’s negotiating teams were typically small and tightly controlled.

At the root of the turmoil is a vacuum at the top. Even seven weeks after Khamenei’s death, Iran has yet to set a date for his funeral. Mojtaba Khamenei, viewed as a potential successor, remains the subject of persistent speculation over his condition.

Formal authority now rests with the Supreme National Security Council led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but that has drawn resistance from factions centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. The report said recent scenes of an unveiled woman leading chants at a protest, along with the decision to postpone local elections scheduled for May 1 by 60 days, may signal growing military control.

Iran’s rival factions remain sharply divided on major issues. On the country’s proxy forces, nationalist groups see them as a bargaining chip for sanctions relief, while Islamists regard them as the backbone of resistance. The split is just as stark on the nuclear issue. Nationalists see it as a risk that could invite an external attack, while Islamists argue Iran should pursue a North Korea-style nuclear development model.

The Economist wrote that even if Iran returns to the negotiating table, deep divisions within its delegation will make a deal difficult. Even if an agreement is reached, it said, internal conflict creates a high risk that it could quickly unravel.

Park Sang-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter highseoul@hankyung.com