A U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) posted weekly net outflows for the first time since its launch. Sentiment toward XRP has also cooled in the derivatives market. Some observers say the token could trade sideways around $2 for the time being. According to cryptocurrency analytics firm Sosovalue on the 27th (local time), about $41 million (about 60 billion won) flowed out of spot XRP ETFs last week on a net basis. This is the first time spot XRP ETFs have recorded weekly net outflows since listing in November last year. Total net assets, which had recently surged to $1.6 billion, also slid to $1.36 billion. Spot XRP ETFs had initially held up relatively well even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows. Both spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs logged monthly net outflows for three consecutive months from November last year through this month, extending a sluggish streak. That contrasts with spot XRP ETFs, which had sustained net inflows for nearly the past two months. That changed starting on the 7th of this month. On that day, XRP ETFs recorded daily net outflows for the first time since launch. Inflows then stalled, and on the 20th, fallout from the U.S.-driven “Greenland shock” triggered net outflows of about $53 million in a single day. Analysts say the fact that XRP’s price has plunged nearly 20% from this month’s peak (about $2.4) has also added to profit-taking pressure. XRP holdings on centralized exchanges (CEXs) are also rising. According to CryptoQuant, as of the previous day (the 26th), XRP holdings on Binance—the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange—stood at about 2.72 billion tokens, the highest level in roughly two months since November last year. Upbit, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, held about 6.3 billion XRP as of the previous day, setting a new high in about 1 year and 2 months since November 2024. Typically, rising exchange holdings are seen as increasing the likelihood of heavier selling pressure. With conditions like these, the derivatives market has also contracted. Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, said: “XRP open interest (OI) has steadily declined and recently fell below $500 million,” adding that “the downtrend has continued since the large-scale liquidation event in October last year.” In fact, XRP open interest has plunged by more than 70% over the past six months, from about 1.7 billion in July last year to about 500 million this month. Analysts also say that strengthening fundamentals for Ripple’s dollar stablecoin RLUSD is insufficient to lift XRP’s upside momentum. RLUSD recently drew attention after being listed on Binance. Its market cap also jumped to about $1.33 billion as of the day, more than 13 times higher than a year ago (about $99 million). Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit’s Research Center, said, “There is no direct link between RLUSD listings or issuance growth and XRP’s value,” adding, “RLUSD usage has not yet stood out on-chain or in the real economy.” Some also suggest XRP could be trapped in a range around $2. In particular, they note that on-chain indicators are showing a pattern similar to early 2022. U.S. crypto outlet Cointelegraph reported, “XRP moved sideways in the $0.3–$0.7 range for three years from 2022 to 2024,” adding, “If this pattern repeats, XRP could trade sideways near $2 for an extended period until a major breakout (Breakout·break above resistance) occurs.”

According to Decrypt, a cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, on the 20th (local time) the prediction-market platform Polymarket was ordered to stop operating in Portugal and Hungary. The outlet reported that Portugal’s gambling regulator and Hungary’s regulator ordered access to be blocked, judging that Polymarket had provided services that constitute illegal gambling under local law. In Portugal, an immediate halt to operations was demanded, while in Hungary a temporary ban was reportedly imposed. While Hungary’s measure could be lifted in the future, the outlet said pressure from regulators in various countries on prediction-market platforms, including Polymarket, is expanding.

<Today’s key economic calendar> ▶︎ Wed 28: △ US FOMC policy rate decision (14:00 ET / 04:00 KST on the 29th) △ Federal Reserve (Fed) statement release (14:00 ET / 04:00 KST on the 29th) △ Press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (14:30 ET / 04:30 KST on the 29th) <Today’s key crypto calendar> ▶︎ Wed 28: △ Arbitrum (ARB) token unlock (approx. 93 million ARB)

Bitcoin tops $30,000 on signs of easing US inflation Emerges as a 'safe haven' after the banking crisis…new investors increase "Short-term volatility may intensify…next resistance at $31,200" As signs have emerged that US inflation is easing, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken through the $30,000 (39.35 million won) barrier and is showing strength. With Bitcoin surging more than 80% this year to become one of the best-performing assets, attention is focused on whether it can sustain the uptrend. As of 4:30 p.m. on the 14th, Bitcoin was trading in Upbit’s KRW market at 40.24 million won, up 0.75% from 24 hours earlier ($30,939 on Binance’s USDT market). At the same time, the “kimchi premium” (the price gap between overseas and domestic exchanges) stood at 0.76%. Experts said Bitcoin could extend gains if it breaks above $31,200 decisively, but selling pressure could build again if it slips back below $30,000. Expectations that US rate hikes are nearing the end…possibility of cuts after May Bitcoin’s recent surge is seen as driven by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle may be nearing its end as US inflation cools and the labor market shows signs of easing. On April 12 (local time), the US Labor Department said March CPI rose 5.0% year on year, the lowest since May 2021. Earlier, US March nonfarm payrolls data released on April 7 also came in below market expectations. US President Joe Biden said in a statement on April 12 (local time) that “this report shows progress in the fight against inflation.” Biden added that “inflation remains too high,” but said “today’s progress means hardworking Americans can have higher wages and more breathing room than they did nine months ago.” CNBC reported on April 12 that “the March consumer price report could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in May,” adding that “fallout from turmoil that has rocked the banking sector recently could bolster arguments that the Fed should pause rate hikes.” Bloomberg reported that “US rate-futures markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% point in May, with cuts expected thereafter.” The New York Times also said “the banking industry is increasingly leaning toward the view that the Fed will soon halt rate hikes.” Barron’s said on April 13 that “markets are increasingly betting the Fed’s rate hikes are close to ending,” adding that expectations are spreading that “the value of ‘risk assets’ such as digital assets (cryptocurrencies) and tech stocks will rise.” Meanwhile, some argue that conditions are not yet sufficient for the Fed to pause future hikes and that policymakers may instead have to worry about both inflation pressure and recession risks. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March, released by the Fed on April 12 (local time), showed officials were concerned the US economy could slip into a mild recession in the second half of the year. Fed economists projected that “fallout from stress in the US banking sector could push the economy into a ‘mild recession’ starting in the second half, with an exit possible two years later.” Officials said “the recent banking episode could weigh on households, businesses, economic activity and employment, and inflation,” adding that “it is uncertain how far the effects will extend.” Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in a CNBC interview on April 13 that “inflation has peaked, but we have a long way to go to get it to a controllable range. Core inflation is still too high.” Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, also said “a strong economy and high inflation suggest there is more work to do,” while noting “how much needs to be done depends on a considerable set of uncertainties.” According to the CME FedWatch Tool that day, the probability of a rate hike at the May FOMC was still seen at 66.2%, while the probability of a hold was 33.8%. Bitcoin emerges as an asset 'safe haven' after the US banking crisis Some analysts also say Bitcoin has emerged as a new haven for storing assets safely following the recent US banking turmoil. The Wall Street Journal said on April 11 that “preference for digital assets has increased since the recent US banking crisis,” adding that “investors see crypto assets as an alternative to the traditional banking system.” Richard Mico, CEO of payment-infrastructure provider Baanx, said that since the recent banking turmoil (including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank), Bitcoin has begun to be recognized as a reliable store of value. He added that liquidity is expected to flow further into the (crypto-asset) market. Bob Ras, co-founder of SoloGenic, a blockchain-based tokenization platform for securities, also said “Bitcoin is emerging as a new asset haven amid financial instability,” adding that a “decoupling” is appearing as Bitcoin does not move in lockstep with equity-market trends and that its appeal as a haven is growing. Recent rally draws more new investors…will it end the 'crypto winter'? Some analyses say retail investors have been driving Bitcoin’s recent rally. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said in a CNBC interview on April 11 (local time) that “retail investors have joined in and fueled Bitcoin’s rally,” adding that amid “FOMO (fear of missing out),” Bitcoin prices began to surge as well. He said Bitcoin would “see a new all-time high within two years.” Crypto data analytics firm Messari said in a recent research report that “the number of wallets holding small amounts of Bitcoin has increased by more than 3% compared with the start of the year.” It said the number of retail wallets has grown relatively more than whale wallets this year, emphasizing that many small investors appear to be stoking the price rise. Alex Adelman, co-founder of Bitcoin rewards app Lolli, said “Bitcoin is ending the crypto winter and entering a new bull phase,” adding that it is drawing interest not only from retail investors but also from institutional investors. Indeed, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the number of new Bitcoin wallets on the Bitcoin network increased by 512,000 from the end of last month through the 10th, the highest level this year. Typically, an increase in new Bitcoin wallets tends to signal greater potential for Bitcoin prices to rise. Bitcoin bullish if it breaks above $31,200 decisively…next resistance at $32,000 Market experts forecast that if Bitcoin breaks above $31,200, it could extend the current uptrend further. However, some caution that short-term volatility could intensify for the time being. Aayush Jindal, an analyst at NewsBTC, said “Bitcoin has broken above $28,800, cited as a key resistance level, and is continuing higher,” adding that if Bitcoin breaks above $30,500 decisively, it is likely to move up in a strong advance to major resistances at $31,200 and $32,000 in turn. He added that “if Bitcoin breaks below $30,250, it could fall to short-term support levels at $29,650 and $29,200.” Tony Spilotro, an analyst at NewsBTC, said “Bitcoin has broken above $30,000 for the first time since June last year and has now established support around $30,000,” adding that “Bitcoin may see a short-term pullback, but the bullish trend will continue for several months.” Tina Teng, a crypto analyst at CMC Markets, said “Bitcoin is maintaining its uptrend as the US banking crisis has raised the likelihood that the Fed’s rate-hike cycle is nearing completion,” adding that “technically, if Bitcoin continues its upward momentum, it could reach $35,000.” Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and a well-known market analyst, said “(in the medium term) Bitcoin’s next resistance level is around $35,900 and support is estimated at $25,200.” She added that “Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend can reverse at any time,” urging investors to pay closer attention to risk management. Some analysts also say caution is warranted as volatility could intensify given that liquidity in the crypto market has shrunk sharply. Connor Ryder, an analyst at Kaiko Research, said “Bitcoin liquidity fell to about half after last year’s FTX bankruptcy and has not yet recovered sufficiently,” adding that “if liquidity is scarce, volatility can rise. Investors should be wary of sharp downside moves.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 21st (local time) that “Greenland is effectively part of North America.” Attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said, “We need Greenland for strategic national security and international security.” He added, “That place (Greenland) is U.S. territory,” and said, “No country other than the United States can keep Greenland safe.” Trump again stressed the need for Greenland. “What we (the United States) are asking for is to secure Greenland, including ownership and rights,” he said, adding that “it’s because you can’t defend it with a lease agreement.” He continued, “Who would want to defend land that is merely a permit to use or a lease agreement?” and added, “(If annexed) we will install a ‘Golden Dome’ in Greenland.” He also signaled talks toward annexing Greenland. Trump said, “Only the United States can protect and develop Greenland,” and that he would “move immediately into negotiations to discuss once again the issue of acquiring Greenland.” On the possibility of military intervention, he emphasized, “If it comes to that, we (the United States) would become an unstoppable force, but we won’t do that.” Trump said, “People thought I would use force, but I don’t need to,” adding, “I have no intention of using force, I don’t want to use it, and I won’t actually use it.”

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Ethereum (ETH), which rebounded as risk appetite returned following remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, moved into a consolidation phase after setting a fresh record high as profit-taking emerged. Market attention is shifting to large-cap “blue-chip” altcoins as well as tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem. Ethereum, the bellwether altcoin, was trading at $4,558, down 1.08% from the previous day as of 2:56 p.m. on the 28th on Binance’s Tether (USDT) market (6.35 million won on Upbit). The ETH/BTC ratio climbed to 0.04057, reflecting its independent uptrend. While Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a modest rebound recently, the broader weak tone persists, limiting attempts by most altcoins to push higher. Overall upside potential for the market appears somewhat constrained. On the day, Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance, Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalization) edged up to 58.22%, a slight rebound since the 25th. The rise in dominance alongside higher Bitcoin prices suggests more funds flowed into Bitcoin than into most altcoins. "Ethereum sees institutional inflows and whale accumulation…further rebound possible" The market has recently been seeing signs of funds moving quickly from Bitcoin to Ethereum. U.S. crypto media outlet CryptoRank reported on the 28th that “some big-money whales are changing strategy, selling Bitcoin and quietly accumulating hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Ethereum.” In its research report, crypto asset manager CoinShares highlighted Ethereum’s strength, saying that “Ethereum-based investment products recorded net inflows totaling $2.5 billion for the month, while Bitcoin products saw net outflows of $1.0 billion.” Crypto data analytics firm Kaiko said in a research report on the 25th that “Ethereum, supported by spot demand, has surpassed its previous all-time high set in 2021,” adding that “even after a short-term pullback, liquidity and trading volume remain solid.” Nasdaq-listed companies such as SharpLink Gaming are also supporting the uptrend by making additional Ethereum purchases through a “Digital Asset Treasury” (DAT) strategy. Whales continue to buy Ethereum. On the 25th, on-chain analytics firm Santiment said, “In August, the number of Ethereum whale (large holder) wallets has steadily increased, laying the groundwork for a further market rebound.” This month, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 ETH rose by 48 to 1,275. Still, there are concerns that short-term volatility could increase as coins previously locked in Ethereum staking are gradually released. Crypto analyst Willy Woo recently appeared on the Swissblock podcast and cautioned that “the Ethereum-led bull trend is continuing, but unstaked supply will gradually be released into the market and could act as selling pressure,” adding that “short-term volatility could widen as investors cash out.” "Ethereum faces $4,630 resistance…September volatility alert" Analysts are leaving room for a near-term pullback in Ethereum while expecting the uptrend to continue over the medium to long term. Ayush Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, “If Ethereum breaks through the $4,630 and $4,720 resistance levels in the short term, it could attempt a move to $4,840 and further to $4,950–$5,000.” He added, “If it fails to break above $4,630, it could retest support at $4,450 and $4,320.” Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, said, “If Ethereum rebounds around $4,349, it could retest $5,000 and potentially rise to $5,500,” but added that “if it fails to break out, there is a risk of sliding to support at $4,060.” Crypto analytics platform Matrixport similarly assessed that “Ethereum’s price is likely to fluctuate within the $4,355–$4,958 range.” Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on his YouTube channel that “Ethereum is likely to see a pullback in September,” noting that “in September 2017 and September 2021—both following U.S. presidential elections—there were precedents of declines of 48% and 34%, respectively.” He said, “Since Ethereum broke above its peak in August, if it digests a seasonal pullback in September, it could lead to an explosive rebound in October.” He added, “If short-term overheating in Ethereum intensifies and it reaches $6,000 right away, that could be it. Upside after that may be limited.” With Cowen having accurately pinpointed Ethereum’s low for the year at around $1,600, the market is also paying close attention to this latest outlook. "Clear ‘altcoin season’ signals still lacking" Some are leaning toward the possibility of further gains in blue-chip altcoins, including Ethereum ecosystem tokens, but others say signals are still insufficient for a clear “altcoin season.” Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FxPro, said, “Recently, whenever Bitcoin slipped below the $110,000 level, buying interest flowed in and drove rebounds, which can be interpreted as a sign that investor psychology of viewing pullbacks as opportunities remains valid.” He added, “Against this backdrop, major altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, Solana and Dogecoin are showing relative strength.” There is also analysis that the market could remain Ethereum-centric for some time. Crypto research firm Swissblock said on its podcast, “Ethereum is regaining market leadership for the first time since 2021. The market’s center of gravity is shifting toward Ethereum.” It added, “The flow that used to run ‘Bitcoin → altcoins → stablecoins’ is now concentrating on Ethereum.” Cowen has previously emphasized that “this is not altcoin season—it’s Ethereum season.” Expectations are also spreading for tokens related to the Ethereum ecosystem. Crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe said recently on his YouTube channel, “During this (September) correction phase, we should pay attention to Ethereum ecosystem altcoins,” citing the possibility of sharp gains in related tokens such as Optimism (OP), Arbitrum (ARB), Ethena (ENA), GIZA (GIZA) and Rocket Pool (RPL) amid Ethereum’s surge. However, there is also analysis that it is still difficult to expect an overall “altcoin season.” Altcoin Vector said on X (formerly Twitter) that “Bitcoin’s recent strength is not clear, and altcoin momentum is only 8%,” adding that “the overall framework for an altcoin season is forming, but signals that can confirm a bull market are still lacking.” It also said, “Even amid Bitcoin weakness and uncertainty, altcoins have already gone through a correction and entered an ‘Accumulation Zone,’ which could be an opportunity to prepare for further upside.” Meanwhile, expectations for a rotation market within the year remain intact. QCP Capital, a crypto trading firm and market maker, said, “Bitcoin dominance has recently fallen from 60% to 57%,” adding, “This is still high compared with below 50% during the 2021 bull market, but expectations that an Ethereum staking ETF will be approved this year mean optimism for an altcoin rotation market continues.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would withdraw the tariff plan that had been slated to take effect on February 1. According to Walter Bloomberg, a breaking-news economics account, on the 21st (local time), President Trump said after meeting NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that he had "formed a framework for a future agreement" regarding Greenland, adding that "accordingly, we will not impose the tariffs that had been scheduled for February 1." Trump had previously signaled the possibility of imposing tariffs on European countries in connection with the Greenland issue, but his latest remarks suggest the measures will be put on hold for the time being.

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An analysis suggests that if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $93,000, liquidation pressure on short positions at major centralized exchanges (CEXs) could intensify sharply. According to crypto (digital asset) news outlet BlockBeats on the 12th, CoinGlass, a derivatives data analytics platform, estimates that if Bitcoin trades above $93,000, cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs could reach $352 million (about 510 billion won). Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $90,000 level, cumulative liquidation intensity for long positions could expand to as much as $637 million (about 935.5 billion won). This suggests that a downside break could concentrate relatively greater liquidation pressure on long positions. A liquidation heatmap is used as a reference indicator to gauge how much market liquidity could be affected when Bitcoin reaches certain price ranges. The higher the liquidation intensity at a given level, the more likely liquidity shocks could grow and volatility could rise when that price is reached. The outlet added, "A liquidation heatmap is not an indicator that represents the exact number of contracts or amount that will actually be liquidated," and noted that "the indicator is focused on showing the relative importance—i.e., intensity—of liquidation clusters formed at each price range."

An analysis suggests that if Bitcoin (BTC) breaks above $93,000, liquidation pressure on short positions could expand sharply across major centralized exchanges (CEXs). According to BlockBeats on the 12th, CoinGlass, a derivatives data analytics platform, estimates that if Bitcoin rises above $93,000, cumulative short liquidations on major CEXs could reach $352 million (about KRW 510 billion). Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the $90,000 level, cumulative long-position liquidations could expand to as much as $637 million (about KRW 935.5 billion). This implies that a downside break could concentrate relatively heavier liquidation pressure on long positions. A liquidation heatmap is used as a reference indicator to gauge how much impact market liquidity may face when Bitcoin reaches certain price ranges. The higher the liquidation intensity at a given level, the more liquidity shockwaves may amplify once that price is reached, increasing volatility. The outlet added that “a liquidation heatmap does not indicate the exact number of contracts or the amount that will actually be liquidated,” noting that “the indicator focuses on showing the relative importance—i.e., intensity—of liquidation clusters formed across each price range.”

Expectations are rising that the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy-rate cuts could be delayed compared with earlier forecasts. According to Walter Bloomberg on the 12th (local time), Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25 bp (0.25 percentage point) each in June and September this year. This marks a one-step pushback from its previous scenario that called for cuts in March and June. Goldman Sachs cited slower-than-expected disinflation and the resilience of the U.S. economy as factors behind the shift in timing. The firm said this increases the likelihood that the Fed will maintain a more cautious approach to monetary easing. Markets are watching the revised outlook for its potential impact on the expected path of future monetary policy. If the Fed’s first rate cut is delayed, some expect financial markets to see greater short-term rate volatility along with a reassessment of risk appetite.

Indeed

Coinbase, a U.S. crypto exchange, has decided to temporarily suspend services based on Argentina’s local currency, the peso, about a year after entering the country. According to The Block on the 4th (local time), Coinbase notified users in Argentina that it will “end transactions between the peso and USDC starting January 31, 2026.” After that date, users will no longer be able to buy or sell USDC with Argentine pesos, or withdraw funds to local bank accounts. Users will have about 30 days to wrap up peso-based transactions before the service ends. Coinbase said the move does not mean it is exiting the market. A company spokesperson told Bloomberg Línea that it is a planned temporary suspension made “as part of a strategic review to offer stronger and more sustainable products,” adding that the goal is to return in a better form after the overhaul. Unlike the peso-based service, crypto-to-crypto trading will remain available. Exchanges between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will continue, and the company said there will be no direct impact on customer assets. Coinbase previously made its official entry into the Argentine market after receiving approval for registration as a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) from Argentina’s National Securities Commission on January 28, 2025. At the time, Coinbase estimated that about 5 million people in Argentina use crypto on an average day, and highlighted a market strategy centered on regulatory compliance.

Coinbase, a U.S. crypto exchange, has decided to temporarily suspend services based on Argentina’s local currency, the peso, about a year after entering the market. According to The Block on the 4th (local time), Coinbase notified Argentine users that it will “end transactions between the peso and USDC starting January 31, 2026.” After that date, users will no longer be able to buy or sell USDC with Argentine pesos or withdraw funds to local bank accounts. Users will have about 30 days to wrap up peso-based transactions before the service ends. Coinbase said the move does not amount to an exit from the business. A company spokesperson told Bloomberg Línea that it is a “planned temporary suspension” carried out as part of a strategic review aimed at offering “stronger and more sustainable products,” adding that the goal is to return in a better form after the overhaul. Unlike peso-based services, crypto-to-crypto trading will continue. Exchanges between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will remain available, and the company said there will be no direct impact on customer assets. Previously, on January 28, 2025, Coinbase officially entered the local market after receiving approval to register as a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) from Argentina’s National Securities Commission. At the time, Coinbase estimated that about 5 million people in Argentina use crypto on an average day and highlighted a market-entry strategy centered on regulatory compliance.

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